Spanish Political Landscape Shifts as Left-Wing Support Declines
Spain’s political dynamics are undergoing a notable shift, with right-wing parties gaining momentum following recent arrests of high-ranking officials. As of today, , Vox has seen a significant increase in support, while left-wing parties are experiencing a decline, according to recent polling data.
Vox’s share of support has risen to 17.4%, a five-point increase since the last election in the summer of 2023. Simultaneously, the Partido Popular (PP) has strengthened its position, climbing half a percentage point to reach 31%. This comes amid a scandal surrounding the arrests of a former minister and his advisor.
Conversely, the Socialist Party (PSOE) has dropped another half a point, losing nearly four points since the last election. The Sumar coalition has also seen a decline, falling by one percentage point in the past month. However, Podemos has experienced a slight gain, increasing its support by seven-tenths of a point.
Aragón Elections: A Divided Left
The upcoming elections in Aragón, scheduled for , highlight the fragmentation within the left-wing political space. Parties that previously formed a coalition – Chunta Aragonesista, Podemos, and Izquierda Unida – are now competing against each other, despite sharing similar ideological positions on issues like economic models and public services.
According to a recent poll by 40dB, these three left-wing forces collectively garner around 13.4% of the vote, a slight increase from their combined result in previous elections (12.23%).
Chunta Aragonesista: Autonomy as a Key Differentiator
Chunta Aragonesista, led by Jorge Pueyo, is positioning itself as a distinct force by emphasizing its regional focus and independence from national political pressures. Pueyo stated the party’s defining characteristic is “obedience exclusive to Aragón,” asserting they have “no chains that bind us to Madrid.” The party is competing in all three electoral districts within Aragón, a position Pueyo highlights as a strength.
Polling data indicates Chunta Aragonesista enjoys strong support among younger voters, with 10.3% of those under 25 intending to vote for the party – a higher percentage than any other party in that demographic. The party also demonstrates a more transversal appeal, attracting 6.3% of voters who identify as centrist.
IU-Movimiento Sumar: A Clear Adversary
IU-Movimiento Sumar, led by Marta Abengochea, is predicted to see a slight increase in support, potentially gaining additional seats in the regional parliament. The party emphasizes its “strong class identity” and “predictable” and “recognizable” character, drawing on its established presence in Aragón.
IU-Movimiento Sumar is focusing its campaign on contrasting itself with right-wing parties, framing them as the primary opposition. While maintaining a cautious approach to criticizing the national government, of which it is a part, the party is actively highlighting its differences with the PP and Vox.
The party’s support is particularly strong among older voters, with 7.4% of those aged 65 and over indicating their intention to vote for IU-Movimiento Sumar. It also holds a dominant position among voters identifying as far-left.
Podemos-Alianza Verde: Critical of the Government
Podemos-Alianza Verde, led by María Goikoetxea, is taking a more critical stance towards the national government, even within the broader Sumar coalition. The party has voiced concerns over recent government decisions, including an agreement with the PNV regarding housing policies, which they criticize as favoring landlords.
Pablo Iglesias, co-founder of Podemos, recently participated in a campaign event in Zaragoza, emphasizing the party’s willingness to challenge established narratives and address issues that other left-wing parties avoid. However, polls suggest Podemos-Alianza Verde is facing challenges, particularly among older voters, and may struggle to retain its current representation in the regional parliament.
The elections in Aragón are taking place against a backdrop of shifting political allegiances and increasing support for right-wing parties across Spain. The fragmentation of the left-wing vote adds another layer of complexity to the electoral landscape.
