Mr Poon Panitchpibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that the baht opened this morning at 35.77 baht / dollar, depreciating from the previous day’s closing level of 35.67 baht / dollar.
The trend of the baht is still at risk of fluctuation and some depreciation. behind the dollar and US bond yields rose steadily following a reduction in expectations for the trend of “swift and deep” interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) which the market had tested before. previously assessed
In addition, the baht faces additional pressure due to the flow of commodity transactions. especially gold
“It is clear that the baht has not been able to strengthen yet. Until new factors come in or until foreign investors turn around and buy. Thai assets remain which has a chance to happen If market players are more confident that the Fed will definitely lower interest rates,” said Mr Poon.
Mr Poon looks at the baht forecast today. It is expected to be at the level of 35.60-35.90 baht / dollar The important highlight is the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which estimated that the ECB will maintain the policy interest rate at 4%, but important factors that will affect financial markets is the ECB President’s view on the economic outlook and inflation.
The latest SPOT is at the level of 35.78500 baht / dollar.
- Important factors
- The yen was at 147.66 ¥/dollar from 147.56 ¥/dollar last night.
- The euro was at $1.0877/euro from last night’s level of $1.0902/euro.
- Baht/dollar exchange rate The weighted average of the BoT between banks is 35.828 baht/dollar.
- “Seththa” reveals the preparation of measures to stimulate the economy after “”GDP” grows low, states that measures do not include In digital wallets, it is confirmed that it will not be inserted.
Overtaking the GDP figure, the FPO lowered its economic forecast for 2023 to 1.8% as the industrial production sector contracted for 14 consecutive months.
Shows that Thailand’s economy continues to expand and decline but is not yet in crisis.
- President JP Morgan Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. disclosed. that JP Morgan predicts the economy.
Thailand in 2024 or this year’s GDP expanded by 3.7%, excluding digital wallets. This is considered to be growth above the global GDP average for the first time in 5 years.
And the Thai stock market will improve after this, which is expected at the end of 2024 to be at 1,700 points from the current near 1,400 points because there is likely to be capital flow.
Enter after a low base. Exports and tourism have recovered well. Including US interest rates which will fall. As for Thai interest rates, they will fall more slowly than other countries.
Others make it an investment opportunity for foreigners.
- The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) combines the basic US manufacturing and services sectors. It rose to a level of 52.3 in January.
C., which is the highest level in 7 months from 50.9 in December, with the PMI index above 50, which indicates the expansion of the sector.
US business
- The US dollar weakened against major currencies in trading on the New York Forex Exchange on Wednesday (January 24).
As investors keep an eye on the release of US economic data this week. Assessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate direction.
- New York gold futures closed lower on Wednesday (January 24) after reports that the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose.
strongly This may cause the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates high for a longer period than expected, In addition, the gold market is low.
Pushed by rising US bond yields.
- Investors are keeping an eye on the release of US gross domestic product (GDP) 4th quarter 2023 (preliminary estimate).
today, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on interest rates today, which is expected to hold interest rates at the current level, while other countries
Money markets are adjusting to the possibility that the ECB will cut interest rates by 1.30% this year.
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