Belarusian President Lukashenko Emerges as Putin’s ‘Loyal Ally’ Amidst Rebellion

Belarus’s Lukashenko Consolidates Position as “Loyal Ally” in Mediating Wagner Group Rebellion

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko emerges as an unexpected winner in the aftermath of the Wagner Group’s rebellion, solidifying his position as a trusted intermediary and Putin’s most loyal ally.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin engage in talks at the presidential residence in Sochi, Russia, on September 9th. AP Yonhap News

Analysts assert that the Wagner Group’s uprising, led by Russia’s private military company, has inadvertently benefited Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who took on the crucial role of mediator. By successfully persuading Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, to cease hostilities and avoid further bloodshed, Lukashenko has solidified his position as Putin’s most loyal ally, overcoming the label of a mere puppet.

On September 25th, the New York Times (NYT) assessed that Lukashenko, often dubbed as “Europe’s last dictator,” has emerged as an “unexpected winner” in this complex situation. Known for suppressing democratic demands from his own people, Lukashenko’s unwavering loyalty towards Russia earned him the title of “the Kremlin’s most compliant governor.” Belarus has faced international sanctions for its support of Russia during the Ukrainian conflict.

The NYT report highlighted Lukashenko’s attempts to transform his image from an outcast within the international community to a dependable mediator and, above all, a loyal ally of Putin. Belarusian state media extensively covered his mediation efforts, thereby reinforcing this narrative. Lukashenko also acted as a mediator during the 2014 Russian attack on Donbass, successfully organizing talks between the two nations.

Pavel Slukin, a former Belarusian diplomat and analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, commented, “The Wagner rebellion exposed the fragility of Putin’s system, with Prigozhin daringly challenging Putin only to back down as a defeated party. In contrast, Lukashenko emerges as the winner, gaining recognition as a skilled negotiator and mediator both within Putin’s circle and the international community.”

Lukashenko’s active collaboration with the Kremlin following the Russian invasion of Ukraine reinforces his reputation as someone who expedited the assimilation of Belarus. During the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian army to advance into Kiiu via its southern border and allegedly aided Russia in the “kidnapping of Ukrainian children,” which is currently under investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC). By permitting the use of tactical nuclear weapons within its territory, Lukashenko has been accused of compromising Belarus’ sovereignty and the safety of its citizens. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Chikanusskaya, currently in exile, expressed concerns that Lukashenko has once again made Belarus a hostage amidst this conflict.

Throughout his nearly 30-year-long presidency since 1994, Lukashenko initially exhibited anti-Russian sentiments, stemming from his experience as a collective farm manager in the former Soviet Union. But in 2020, as large-scale anti-government protests engulfed Belarus, Lukashenko’s pro-Russian stance grew more pronounced, propelling him closer to loyalty. With the backing of Putin, he ruthlessly suppressed protests, thus becoming isolated from the international community and increasingly reliant on Russia, both politically and economically. Putin and Lukashenko are currently discussing the possibility of a “union state” that would unite the two nations, with the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons being a part of this deliberation.

The New York Times analysis suggests that Lukashenko and Putin share a symbiotic relationship, reliant on one another for their political survival. “Lukashenko and Putin are like Siamese twins,” remarked Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian diplomat in exile. “They are bound together, and the fall of one inevitably results in the political demise of the other.”

Establish a position as a ‘loyal ally’

Become a ‘trusted intermediary’

Putin and “Siamese twins”

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin have a conversation at the presidential residence in Sochi, Russia, on the 9th. AP Yonhap News

Analysts say the biggest beneficiary of the rebellion caused by the Wagner Group, a private military company in Russia, is Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who mediated. By persuading Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, to withdraw and stop the bloodshed, he has cemented his position as his ‘most loyal ally’ of ‘Putin’s puppet’.

On the 25th (local time), the New York Times (NYT) evaluated that President Lukashenko, known as ‘Europe’s last dictator’, has become an “unexpected winner” in this situation. Famous for suppressing his own people who demand democracy, he has been called “the Kremlin’s most docile governor” when it comes to relations with Russia. Belarus is under international sanctions for supporting Russia during the war in Ukraine.

The NYT reported that President Lukashenko, who had been ‘out’ in the international community, appeared to be trying to transform his image into a ‘reliable mediator’ and a ‘loyal ally of Putin’ using this incident as stepping stone. His mediation appears to have been widely reported by Belarusian state media as part of that. During the 2014 Russian attack on Donbass, Lukashenko also acted as a mediator and organized talks between the two countries.

Pavel Slukin, a former Belarusian diplomat and analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said, “(Wagner’s rebellion) showed Putin how fragile his system was, and Prigozhin bravely challenged Putin, but in the end he backed down as a loser.” Only Lukashenko has won points as a mediator and negotiator before Putin and, consequently, before the international community. “

President Lukashenko is evaluated as a person who actively collaborated with the Kremlin after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and accelerated the ‘subjugation’ of Belarus. At the time of the invasion in February last year, it was territory for the Russian army to advance into Kiiu via the southern border, and is known to have cooperated with Russia’s ‘kidnapping of Ukrainian children’, which is being investigated by the International. Criminal Court (ICC). Recently, by allowing Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons to be used in its country, it has been evaluated that it has surrendered the sovereignty of Belarus and the security of its people to Russia. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Chikanusskaya, who is in exile, told The Associated Press that it was not clear what Lukashenko would do with Prigozhin, but that he had once again made Belarus a hostage to this war.

He, who is the first president of Belarus and has been in power for almost 30 years since 1994, did not show pro-Russian movements close to ‘humiliation’ from the beginning. After working as a collective farm manager in the former Soviet Union, he became an anti-corruption activist after Belarus gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. However, in 2020, a large-scale anti-government protest accelerated in by his long-term rule his pro-Russian move was close to loyalty. With the support of President Putin, he largely suppressed protests, and as a result, he became isolated from the international community and became politically and economically dependent on Russia. Putin and President Lukashenko are also discussing a ‘union state’ that unites the two countries, and the use of tactical nuclear weapons is part of this discussion.

The New York Times analyzed that Lukashenko and Putin both have a symbiotic relationship that needs each other to stay in power. “Lukashenko and Putin are like Siamese twins,” said Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian diplomat in exile. “They cannot live without each other. The fall of one means the political death of the other.”

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