BLS September Employment Data Release – Nov 20th
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on November 14th that the September employment situation release, originally scheduled for October 3rd, will now be issued on November 20th.
- The jobs report is arguably the most closely watched economic indicator in the United States.
- The shutdown directly impacted the BLS's ability to collect and process data.
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Delayed September Jobs Report to be Released; October Data in Doubt
Table of Contents
What Happened?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on November 14th that the September employment situation release, originally scheduled for October 3rd, will now be issued on November 20th. This delay was a direct result of the recent lapse in appropriations – the goverment shutdown. More concerningly, the BLS has not yet indicated whether an October jobs report will be released at all.
Why This Matters: The Importance of the jobs Report
The jobs report is arguably the most closely watched economic indicator in the United States. It provides a thorough snapshot of the labor market’s health, influencing a wide range of decisions. Here’s a breakdown of its significance:
- Economic Health Assessment: The report reveals trends in employment, unemployment, and wage growth, offering insights into the overall economic climate.
- Investor Confidence: Strong job numbers typically boost investor confidence, while weak numbers can trigger market volatility.
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve heavily relies on the jobs report when formulating monetary policy, notably regarding interest rate adjustments. A robust labor market can justify further rate hikes to combat inflation, while a weakening market might prompt the Fed to pause or even cut rates.
- Business Planning: Businesses use the data to inform hiring decisions, investment strategies, and overall planning.
The Impact of the Shutdown: September and October Data
The shutdown directly impacted the BLS’s ability to collect and process data. while the September report is now back on track, the situation with October is more precarious. Kevin Hassett,former director of the White House National Economic Council,stated that the October report will likely not include an unemployment rate becuase the crucial household survey used to calculate that rate was not conducted during the shutdown. This creates a meaningful data gap.
Data Collection Methodology & The Household Survey
The BLS employment data is derived from two primary surveys:
| Survey | Description | Data Provided |
|---|---|---|
| Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey | A monthly survey of about 144,000 businesses and government agencies. | Nonfarm payroll employment, hours worked, and earnings. |
| Current Population Survey (CPS) | A monthly survey of about 60,000 households. | Labor force status (employed, unemployed, not in labor force), unemployment rate, and demographic characteristics of the labor force. |
The cancellation of the CPS in October is the primary reason for the potential absence of an unemployment rate in the October report. Without this household survey, a reliable unemployment rate cannot be calculated.
What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?
the lack of October data introduces uncertainty into the economic outlook.Economists and analysts are left to rely on other indicators, such as initial jobless claims and private sector reports, to gauge the labor market’s health. This makes accurate forecasting more challenging.