The CCP aims to discuss the Prime Minister’s preparation of monetary and fiscal measures to instill confidence before opening the country.
Date 11 Oct. 2021 time 13:30
CCP sees positive signs for Thai economy after loosening lockdown Move the GDP growth target 0-100%. Prepare to meet with the Prime Minister to discuss measures to stimulate confidence. Ready to stick to negative factors, expensive oil – weak baht affect the cost of production
Mr. Sanan Angubolkul, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Revealed after the meeting of the joint committee of 3 private institutions, namely the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers’ Association that the number of infected people at present stabilized to decrease due to a clear vaccine procurement and allocation plan More vaccines are distributed to other provinces. As the government began to relax various rules for economic activities to gradually resume operations. by keeping an eye on the easing measures that will come out in the middle of the month Oct. to the beginning of Nov.
In addition, a positive factor that helps to enhance the overall economic outlook at the end of the year is the measures the government has released during this period, such as the half-person project, Phase 3 that will help stimulate domestic purchasing power. The We Travel Together project, Phase 3, which extends 2 million additional rights, will be a boost to the tourism sector during the High-Season period. The government should have additional measures. Both good shopping and night and top up each half for an additional 3,000 baht, a total of 6,000 baht, in order to create more money circulating in the system
In addition, plans to open the country announced by the government It will help build the confidence of tourists. and foreign investors, although the remaining 2 months The number of tourists may not be much this year. But it will benefit and build confidence in the next phase. The CCP is collecting proposals related to monetary, fiscal and tax measures and submitting a letter requesting to meet with the Prime Minister within this week.
For the negative factors to keep an eye on is the flood situation of the country Although many areas have begun to have water levels have dropped somewhat, but there are still many surveillance areas. which damages the agricultural sector especially in the northeastern and central regions Preliminary estimates that the flood situation will affect the economy about 15 billion baht or about 0.1% of GDP.
while the problem of rising oil prices, reaching the highest level in 7 years, affecting the cost of production, transportation, business travel and the general public In addition, the baht depreciated. This causes the cost of energy imports, both oil and gas, to increase at an accelerated rate.
depreciation of the baht Even if it has a positive effect on the export business But many businesses and industries have been affected as a result, although the Company (BOT) has resolved to reduce contributions to the fuel fund in the diesel fuel segment. So that the retail price of diesel fuel does not exceed 30 baht / liter, but it is a solution to immediate problems. and it is expected that the price of crude oil in the world market is still in an uptrend The state must plan for efficient energy management. in order not to aggravate and affect the economic recovery
However, the challenge after The global commodities price has to be monitored, which has accelerated greatly due to 1. The global economy continues to recover, 2. Tight supply, and 3. The reduction of fossil fuel production capacity. To transition to a policy of net zero emissions (Net zero emissions), resulting in a leap in the cost of production of goods and services. as well as causing the global consumer inflation (CPI) to rise sharply. As a result, global long-term government bond yields rose in line with US Treasury yields. Higher inflation is another issue where the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may decide to cut monetary policy easing sooner than expected. As a result, global financial markets, including the baht, tend to fluctuate in the depreciation direction in the future.
Mr. Sanan said that the Election Commission has revised the Thai economic forecast for 2021 to improve from negative 0.5 to 1% to be in the range of 0.0% to 1.0%, which will not see negative GDP. But still need to monitor the flood situation and the number of infections after the easing of lockdown measures for another period.
As for exports, the CCP is expected to grow 12.0% to 14.0% due to a well-recovered global economy. under the condition of the freight that is not too high can control the outbreak in industrial workers and vaccinating workers thoroughly Headline inflation will be in the range of 1.0% to 1.2%.
However, the SEC. There were additional relevant suggestions. Regarding the progress of the CPTPP of Thailand, the CCP asks the government to expedite the action on joining the CPTPP negotiations. The CCP will write a letter to the Prime Minister. Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister to present the results of private sector studies and expedite consideration, because at present, China The United Kingdom and Taiwan have clearly expressed their intention to enter into negotiations with the CPTPP. and if Thailand is still delayed This may lead to further negotiations in accordance with the terms of the three countries, from the former having to negotiate with 11 countries that are currently CPTPP members, and cause Thailand to lose the opportunity to compete in trade with neighboring countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore.
Suphan Mongkolsuthi, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the government must closely monitor the impact of high oil prices. and the baht depreciated which is not only the industrial sector but also including utilities The government must come down to help solve the problem. As for the flood problem, it does not affect the industrial sector much. but will affect many agricultural areas This may cause the cost of agricultural raw materials to rise. may affect the cost of agricultural processing industry
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