China Economic Growth 2025 – Reuters Survey
- BEIJING (Reuters) - Think tank Rhodium Group has released an estimate that China's economic growth rate in 2025 will be between 2.5% and 3%.This is almost half the...
- When announcing the next five-year plan at the National People's Congress (National People's Congress, equivalent to the National Assembly) held in March every year, it is indeed expected...
- Though, according to Rhodium Group, about $500 billion in demand losses have not been accounted for.
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China’s Economic Growth forecast Lowered by Rhodium Group
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this photo was taken on the 12th at a shopping mall in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. REUTERS/Go Nakamura
BEIJING (Reuters) – Think tank Rhodium Group has released an estimate that China’s economic growth rate in 2025 will be between 2.5% and 3%.This is almost half the pace suggested by official data. This is said to be due to a decline in fixed asset investment in the second half of the year.
When announcing the next five-year plan at the National People’s Congress (National People’s Congress, equivalent to the National Assembly) held in March every year, it is indeed expected that the country will announce that it has achieved its annual growth rate target of “approximately 5%.”
Though, according to Rhodium Group, about $500 billion in demand losses have not been accounted for. “China’s economic growth in 2025 will depend on whether investment simply declines or collapses in the second half of the year,” the report said, pointing to a discrepancy in the data showing a decline in fixed asset investment but capital formation still appearing to make a positive contribution to GDP.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics did not instantly respond to a request for comment.
Rhodium Group predicts that growth will remain between 1% and 2.5% in 2026. This is considerably lower than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 4.5%.
key Forecasts & Comparisons
| Year | Rhodium Group Forecast | IMF Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5% - 3% | Not explicitly stated in article |
| 2026 | 1% – 2.5% | 4.5% |
Factors Contributing to the Lower Forecast
- Decline in Fixed Asset investment: A key driver of the revised forecast.
- Data Discrepancies: A mismatch between investment decline and positive GDP contribution from capital formation.
- Unaccounted Demand Losses: Approximately $500 billion in demand not reflected in official figures.