Chronic Disease Progress Slowing: Why Global Gains Are Stalling
Here’s a breakdown of the key information from the provided text, organized for clarity:
main Topic: Changes in Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) Mortality (2010-2019)
Source: A study published in The Lancet analyzing data from 185 countries.
Key Findings (2010-2019):
* Overall decline: The probability of dying from an NCD before age 80 decreased in the majority of countries:
* 152 of 185 countries (82%) for females
* 147 of 185 countries (79%) for males
* Regional variations:
* All high-income Western countries showed declines.
* Denmark led in declines for both sexes.
* The USA had the smallest drop among high-income Western countries.
* China, Egypt, Nigeria, Russia, and Brazil experienced declines.
* India and Papua New Guinea saw increases.
* Statistically Meaningful Decreases: Observed in 29% of countries for females.
Background & Context:
* NCDs Include: Cancers, heart disease/stroke, diabetes, lung/kidney/neurological/mental disorders.
* Impact: NCDs cause a significant number of deaths globally (42 million of 57 million in 2019), with a large proportion occurring before age 80.
* Global Efforts: Governments have made commitments through the UN and SDGs, but progress is uneven.
* importance of Research: Need to understand which diseases and age groups are driving trends.
Study Methodology:
* Data Source: world Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Estimates 2021.
* Countries Grouped: 185 countries grouped into 8 regions.
* Primary Outcome: Probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80.
* Analysis:
* Compared changes between 2010-2019 and 2001-2010.
* Cause-specific analysis done for 63 countries.
* Sex-specific analysis.
* Benchmarked countries against the best-performing in their region.
* Exclusions: 2020-2021 data excluded due to COVID-19’s impact.
* Limitations: Data quality issues in low- and middle-income countries increase uncertainty.