CITIC Securitiesreleaseresearch reportAccording to the report, wind power accelerates cost reduction and efficiency increase to stimulate demand, and the industry chain is expected to achieve steady growth.Whole machine link: The large-megawatt technology upgrade of the wind power industry is accelerating, and the double drop in price and cost is expected to support grossinterest rateHigh-quality complete machine factories that maintain stability and have the advantages of large-scale wind turbines + supply chain are expected to grow into new leaders.Parts link: The large-scale trend increases the barriers to competition in the industry. Leading manufacturers with advantages in technology, cost, and customers are expected to benefit from global share substitution and technology upgrades, optimizing long-term competitiveness and growth space.
Wind power enters the stage of parity grid, and the large-scale process of wind turbines accelerates, which promotes the strengthening of the competitiveness of the industry chain: 1) The cost of wind power accelerates, releases the growth potential of installed demand, and strengthens the industry’s growth attributes; 2) The promotion of large-megawatt wind turbines has a relatively fast progress and supply A high-quality complete machine factory with a complete chain layout is expected to grow into a new leader; 3) The threshold for component competition has increased, and the leading manufacturers with advantages in technology, cost, and customers are expected to benefit from global share substitution and technology upgrades, optimizing long-term competitiveness and growth space.
Under the guidance of subsidies to support transformation goals, the growth attributes of wind power are expected to be strengthened.
After wind power enters the stage of parity, the policy support method will shift from subsidy promotion to target guidance. The industry development will be less dependent on policies and reduce costs and increase efficiency. The fluctuations in wind power will be smoothed out. At the same time, under the guidance and support of the strategic goal of “carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutral in 2060”, the growth of the industry is ushering in further strengthening.
The process of large-scale wind turbines has accelerated, and the cost of wind power has accelerated.
Parity on the grid forces the wind power industry chain to accelerate cost reduction, and the most effective way to reduce costs is to increase the size of wind turbines: on the one hand, it can reduce the amount of unit parts and components in the whole machine manufacturing link, and on the other hand, it can reduce the BOP and Opex costs of wind power projects. At present, mainstream domestic onshore wind power models are being upgraded by leaps and bounds from 2-3MW to 4-6MW, and offshore wind power is also expected to increase from 4-5MW to 6-8MW, or to reduce the cost of wind turbines by more than 20%. Benefit from the acceleration of cost reduction and efficiency increase at the manufacturing end,CITIC SecuritiesIt is estimated that the IRR of domestic wind-level tariff projects is expected to stabilize at 6%-9%, realizing a smooth transition of parity to the Internet.
The center of onshore wind power installation is expected to increase, and offshore wind power starts a new stage of growth.
With the increasing economic and investment attractiveness of wind-level price projects, industry demand is expected to continue high growth. The scale of onshore wind power bidding in 2021H1 exceeds expectations. The annual bidding volume is expected to reach 50GW, indicating that the demand will be high in the next 1-2 years. The average annual installed capacity of the “14th Five-Year Plan” is expected to exceed 40GW. The competitiveness of offshore wind parity prices continues to increase. With the strong support of long-term plans and policies in key coastal provinces, it is estimated that the average annual installed capacity of the “14th Five-Year Plan” is expected to reach 10GW. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the securities are revised upwards and the annual average installed capacity of domestic wind power is expected to exceed 50GW, corresponding to a CAGR of nearly 15%.
(Source: Zhitong Finance Network)
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