Darfur: Global Powers’ Proxy Battleground – The Cipher Brief
Summary of Foreign Involvement in Sudan’s Civil War
This article details the important and detrimental role of foreign actors in Sudan’s ongoing civil war, exacerbating the conflict and hindering peace efforts.Here’s a breakdown of the key players and their motivations:
1. Iran:
* Support for: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) – primarily to gain access to Port Sudan.
* Goals: Expand Shiite influence in the region, potentially creating another proxy like Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis.
* Impact: Shifts momentum towards the SAF, contributes to the humanitarian disaster, and worsens impoverishment by exploiting Sudan’s resources. Iranian involvement is expected to grow as the war continues.
* Note: Iran supports Sunni Islamist militias (like in Sudan and Gaza) as well as Shia groups.
2. Russia:
* Initial Support for: Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – through the Wagner Group (now under Russia’s Defense Ministry).
* Motivation (Initial): access to Sudanese gold mines (Jebel Amer) to circumvent Ukraine war sanctions and fund operations. Wagner smuggled approximately 32.7 tons of gold worth $1.9 billion between 2022-2023. This support fueled RSF violence, including massacres.
* Shift in Support: After Prigozhin’s death, Russia switched to supporting the SAF, seeking a naval base in Port Sudan.
* Current Actions: Vetoed a UN ceasefire resolution to maintain influence. Russian mercenaries are reportedly operating in West Darfur,worsening displacement. Russian commercial and security networks remain linked to the RSF and gold flows.
* Motivation (Current): Profit and power, securing a strategic naval base.
3. Underlying Factors Driving Foreign Involvement:
* Geography: Sudan’s strategic location along the Nile, Red Sea, and Horn of Africa makes it vital for regional powers.
* Resources: It’s ports and resource-rich land create a lucrative war economy.
* Regional Rivalry: Competition for influence among various nations (Gulf States,Moscow,Ankara,etc.).
Overall Impact:
Foreign backing has prolonged the war, hardened divisions, and created a situation where neither side can achieve a decisive victory.The RSF controls peripheral areas for revenue extraction, while the SAF is entrenched in core areas with state institutions and donor support.The complex web of foreign interests makes ending the war exceptionally difficult.