Deja Vu in the Making: Will History Repeat Itself in the Next US Presidential Election
The “red mirage” is the phenomenon in which the Republican presidential candidate holds a lead right after the polls close on election night but is erased by a “blue wave” when the Democratic candidate surpasses him. up after mail ballots are counted late in the evening or in the days following Election Day.
The above concepts are also named according to the color of each party’s symbol: red represents the Republican Party and blue represents the Democratic Party.
Former President Donald Trump once cited the “red mirage” to prove his baseless accusations of election fraud in 2020, when in fact it is just a common phenomenon in elections. in America.
Map tracking the results of the 2020 US presidential election at the US Embassy in Mongolia. Photo: Getty
The “blue wave” erases the “red mirage” of 2020
In 2020, until midnight on Election Day November 3, the final results of the race between Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Joe Biden were still undecided.
The results in 8 key states including Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Georgia and Pennsylvania are not clearly determined.
Initial results showed that Mr. Trunk seemed to be in the lead, but the following days were an extremely dramatic chase, with results changing every hour. In the battleground state of Georgia, it was not until the early morning of November 6 that vote counting results began to show that Mr. Biden was ahead. At this time, the “red illusion” begins to be erased by the “blue wave”.
At that time, CNN host Phil Mattingly provided the audience with the so-called “Magic Wall,” referring to the small number of votes being counted but having a huge impact on the election. The presidential election is very close.
CNN news agency said they predicted Mr. Biden could win just 4 days after the election. However, the vote counting was still ongoing. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the vote counting process in places where Mr. Biden won took longer than that of his opponent Donald Trump.
While news agencies like CNN can make predictions about the winner of the US Presidential election because the difference between the candidates is quite clear, it is not yet considered an official result.
The race for the White House will only officially end when the Election Commission certifies the election results. The deadline for certifying election results may vary by state but most will be December 11, including recounting votes if necessary and resolving disputes related to the number of votes. vote for presidential candidates.
A similar “blue wave” happened in 2016, but it could not change the outcome of the race between Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton. CNN reporter Marshall Cohen said that when Mrs. Clinton admitted defeat to the American people after election day, she was still ahead of Mr. Trump in the popular vote.
The results of a subsequent vote count showed that Mrs. Clinton was several million votes ahead of Mr. Trump. That’s when the “red illusion” is erased by the “blue wave”. But that was not enough for her to become the owner of the White House when Mr. Trump defeated her with a ratio of 304 – 227 electoral votes.
Does history repeat itself?
There are some signs that this year, some battleground states will have election results sooner.
In Georgia, new election laws have enabled many voters to vote early in person instead of by mail. This will help speed up the ballot counting process at polling locations. Meanwhile, North Carolina no longer accepts mail ballots if they arrive after Election Day (this year it is November 5).
Sharing on CBS Radio’s “Face the Nation” program, Georgia state election official Brad Raffensperger said he expected most polling stations to sort and count ballots just a few hours after voting. close the door.
“All early votes, accounting for 70-75% of the total votes in the state, will have results at 8:00 p.m. on election night,” Mr. Raffensperger said. However, if the 2024 Presidential election in this state is closer than 2020, that volume of votes counted early may still not be enough to conclude who is the winner.
When asked if it would take up to a week to determine the winner in Georgia, Mr. Raffensperger said definitely not.
“We will wait for the votes to be sent to the state from abroad, but they will not arrive no later than November 8. Those will be the final numbers. We just have to see if they make a difference in the total number of votes counted,” Mr. Raffensperger explained.
In some other states, such as battleground states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election officials are not allowed to process any ballots before Election Day. However, vote counting can still take place faster because the number of polling stations this year is fewer than in 2020 when the Covid-19 epidemic was raging in the US.
In Michigan, processing of ballots at early voting sites can take place before the actual election day. State election official Jocelyn Benson said she hopes to have final results by the end of November 6, the day after Election Day.
“We always prioritize accuracy and security over speed and efficiency in vote counting,” Ms. Jocelyn added.
If this year’s presidential election is too close, it may still take many days for the final results to be known.
One of the closest and longest presidential elections in American history took place in 2000 when the election system in Florida had an error at some polling stations, causing several hundred votes to be considered invalid. invalid and controversial.
The controversial election results in this state lasted for 36 days until the US Supreme Court ruled to stop recounting part of the votes in this state, thereby helping Mr. George W. Bush defeat his opponent. Al Gore.
Mr. Al Gore became one of three US Vice Presidents who accepted defeat after directly supervising the vote recount.