Dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives… The first general election since Abe, the ‘election genius’, Kishida Myeongun is a test stage

On the 14th, the Japanese politicians dissolved the House of Representatives and entered the stage of a full-scale general election. With less than a month left until the House of Representatives election on the 31st, both the ruling and opposition parties are poised to engage in an all-out war to win voters’ hearts for a short period of time. The public’s support for the newly inaugurated Fumio Kishida cabinet will be revealed. The election will be held four years after former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won three consecutive victories since 2012, when the LDP took power from the Democratic Party. The prime minister will take the first test stage after the end of the ‘Abe era’, which was called the king of elections. In Japan, it is expected that the LDP will lose fewer seats than the current seat, but will maintain the ‘single majority’, which is the key.

Prime Minister Kishida presided over the Cabinet meeting on the same day and decided to dissolve the House of Representatives. The dissolution was declared when Emperor Naruhito signed the dissolution protocol of the House of Representatives, and House Speaker Tadamori Oshima read it. The dissolution of the House of Representatives is the first in four years and one month since September 2017, during the administration of Shinzo Abe. The election of the House of Representatives will be announced on the 19th, and the general election voting will be held on the 31st. It is the shortest post-war record to hold a general election 17 days after dissolution, and it is also the first time that an election is held after the term of office of the House of Representatives expires (21 days).

Whether Kishida will establish a stable power base is overshadowed by the general election

In this election, held four weeks after the new cabinet was launched, if the LDP retains a single majority, Prime Minister Kishida is expected to establish a stable power base. On the other hand, if the new cabinet is weaker than expected despite the effect of the new cabinet, the position of the prime minister will be shaken from the start. In a meeting with reporters on the same day, Prime Minister Kishida said, “From now on, people will be judged. “We are facing today with a very solemn heart,” he said.

Based on the number of seats in the House of Representatives of Japan(Nihon Keizai Shimbun)

The LDP secured more than 233 seats, a single majority, on all three occasions, including the December 2012 general election. In particular, in the general election in October 2017, the ‘Party of Hope’ created by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike appeared and the opposition split continued. It secured a majority in all standing committees and monopolized the chairperson, surpassing 261 seats, which is called the ‘absolutely stable majority’. Although fewer than this, the 244 seats that secure half of all standing committees are called ‘stable majority’.

The dominant analysis is that the LDP almost monopolized the seats in the last election, and this time it will be smaller than it is now. In August alone, it was predicted that the LDP would lose 60 to 70 seats and a single majority would be at risk due to the Tokyo Olympics held by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and the rapid spread of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19). However, the LDP’s approval rating has risen significantly due to the effect of ‘similar regime change’ through the September governor election and the inauguration of a new cabinet. The latest issue of ‘Shukanbunshun (週刊文春)’ reported that, as a result of analyzing the situation in the House of Representatives election with the Political Promotion System Research Institute, the LDP was predicted to secure a total of 244 seats, a decrease of 32 seats. It corresponds to a ‘stable majority’ seat.

Prediction of the number of seats for each party in the House of Representatives electionLatest issue of Shukan Bunshun (週刊文春)

Opposition parties fight against unification of candidates… Promise of ‘temporary exemption from consumption tax’

The opposition party, which suffered a devastating defeat in the last election due to division, is expected to face off with a unified candidate. By the previous day, the Japanese Communist Party announced that it would withdraw its candidates from 22 constituencies and unify it with the Constitutional Democratic Party. According to the Asahi Shimbun, in more than 200 of the 289 constituencies, five opposition parties, including these two parties, are expected to present a single candidate.

The opposition parties, similar to themselves, are attacking the Liberal Democratic Party, which has made ‘distribution’ and ‘correction of gaps’ as its promises, saying, “The promises promised by Prime Minister Kishida are being shaken.” In addition, he is appealing to the vote by proposing a promise to temporarily exempt income tax from income below 10 million yen and temporarily exempt 5% of consumption tax, which has risen to 10%. He also promised a fact-finding investigation into various allegations that were not definitively completed during the Abe cabinet. However, the party’s low approval rating is unlikely to significantly increase the number of seats in the actual election. Shukanbunshun predicted that the number of seats for the Constitutional Democratic Party would increase by just five, from 110 to 115. On the other hand, the right-wing opposition party, the Japan Restoration Association, predicted that the number of seats would increase from 10 to 26.

Tokyo = Jinju Choi correspondent pariscom@hankookilbo.com