Study Reveals Drought Conditions Persist Despite Heavy Rainfall in Thailand
Renowned climate change expert, Dr. Seri Supharatit, recently released the findings of a rain index study, shedding light on the current state of drought in Thailand. Despite experiencing heavy rainfall, the country continues to face water scarcity issues. Contrary to expectations, the downpours have not resulted in major flooding incidents. Dr. Supharatit predicts a mild winter in Thailand later this year, followed by an extremely hot climate in the coming year.
Regional Analysis Uncovers Complex Rainfall Patterns
In a Facebook post, Professor Dr. Seree Suparathit, Director of the Center for Climate Change and Disasters at Rangsit University and Vice President at the Institute of the National Disaster Warning Council, revealed that heavy rain and localized flooding are anticipated in certain areas such as the upper northern and north-eastern regions during September and October. However, data from the SPEI rain index analysis revealed that many regions, particularly the central and eastern parts of the country, are still grappling with drought conditions. The exception to this is the western edge and the northeast region along the Mekong River.
“The recent heavy rainfall in the southern region did not lead to major floods. This is a normal occurrence as the excess water waits to be drained. The accuracy of rainfall forecasts during abnormal weather patterns, such as El Niño, is often questionable,” explained Dr. Supharatit.
For example, this year’s seasonal forecast initially indicated a decrease in rainfall. However, September and October witnessed approximately 30% and 19% more rainfall than usual, respectively, particularly in the northern and north-eastern regions. Nevertheless, the cumulative rainfall for the past 3-6 months remains below average, excluding the north-east region. Dr. Supharatit advises farmers and cultivators to monitor the situation closely, as monthly predictions are more reliable in such cases.
Variable Temperature Trends for the Upcoming Years
An analysis of temperature distribution from December 2020 to April 2024 reveals an interesting pattern. The temperatures during December are expected to be lower than average every year, except for 2023 when a nearly 2°C increase in average temperature is predicted. This implies that the upcoming winter will not be as cold as usual.
However, April 2024 will experience a scorching heatwave, with average temperatures soaring 1.5°C above normal. Climate change factors, including global warming and unstable weather patterns influenced by El Niño, contribute to this phenomenon. As a result, the demand for winter clothing may decline significantly between the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Traders and sellers should exercise caution and refrain from stocking excessive inventory.
Implications for Agriculture and Water Management
The second rice farming season has commenced, benefiting from recent rainfall. Adequate water availability and favorable rice prices have encouraged farmers to engage in widespread cultivation. However, the water allocation in the Chao Phraya Basin, a crucial agricultural area, has decreased by 62% this year compared to 2022. Only 2,300 million cubic meters of water will be allocated to farmers, leading to a restricted rice farming area of approximately 2 million rai (out of a total of 8 million rai). More than 80% of areas lying outside the irrigation network, particularly in the north-eastern region, will face significant challenges due to lack of water resources. The absence of alternative water sources, coupled with the upcoming hot weather and drought, will likely result in an increase of over 10% in evaporation rates. This situation may lead to forest fires, PM2.5 pollution, and heatwaves in cities.
While seasonal rainfall forecasts can be unreliable, farmers must proactively prepare for production challenges. Failure to plan accordingly may result in higher farming costs. Recent data from multiple models suggests that early rainfall in 2024 may be lower than usual, indicating a delay in the onset of the rainy season. Over 80% of areas outside the irrigation system must proactively tackle this water scarcity issue. It is crucial for farmers to closely monitor the situation, as the weather affects everyone’s livelihood and existence.
“Dr. Seri Supharatit” reveals the results of the SPEI rain index study. Many areas are still in drought status. Although it rained heavily But it did not cause major flooding. Pointing out that the winter at the end of this year in Thailand will not be cold and that next year will be extremely hot.
Professor Dr Seree Suparathit, Director of the Center for Climate Change and Disasters at Rangsit University and Vice President at the Institute of the National Disaster Warning Council posted a message through his personal Facebook page stating that Since September And in October there will be heavy rain. and flooding in some areas such as the upper northern and north-eastern regions, but when analyzed from the SPEI rain index, it was found in the last 3-6 months Many areas, especially the central and eastern regions, are still have drought conditions. Except for the western edge. and to the northeast along the Mekong River
“At the end of the rainy season, the rain fell, especially in the southern region. But it didn’t cause a major flood. For floods waiting to be drained, this is normal. Rainfall forecasts for unusual years (like Piñino) are very inaccurate.”
For example, this year’s seasonal forecast. Most models point in the direction of less rain. But in fact, the amount of rain in September and October is about 30% and 19% more than normal, respectively, especially in the northern and north-eastern regions (however, the accumulated amount of rain is still to be less than usual.Excluding the north-east region) Therefore, this year’s rain forecast can only be based on the predictions made 1 month in advance.Farmers and farmers must follow the situation every month.
Analyzing the temperature distribution during December A April 2020-2024 found that the temperature in December will be lower than average every year. (Cold) Except for 2023, which is expected to increase the average temperature by almost 2oC This means we won’t be cold this year.
At the same time, the average temperature in April 2024 will be 1.5oC above normal, we will also be extremely hot. Due to climate change factors (global warming) and unstable weather (Enniño), therefore, at the end of this year until the beginning of next year, winter clothes may not sell well. Traders, sellers, do not order and many to stock up.
As the second rice farming season begins, the rain has fallen and water is available. Good rice prices motivate farmers to farm in many areas. The cost of the amount of water (Only in the Chao Phraya Basin) about 62% (11,000 million cubic meters) less than in 2022 (78%, 14,000 million cubic meters) Last year, more than 5,800 million cubic meters of water were allocated. Over 7 million of rice is grown off-season in the Chao Phraya Basin.
But this year, look at the data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Only 2,300 million cubic meters of water will be allocated to farmers. There will be no more than 2 million rai of the rice farming area of 8 million rai. Areas outside the irrigation area are over 80%, especially in the north-eastern region. If you do not have your own water costs (wells, ponds, small weirs, systems for pumping water to the rice fields) together with the hot weather and drought next year the rate of evaporation will increase by more than 10% problems with forest fires in the northern region, PM2.5 dust, and heat waves in cities followed.
Although the seasonal rain forecast can be wrong. But farmers need to prepare factors of production. Because the cost of farming will be high if there is no planning. The latest data from several models shows that early rainfall in 2024 could be less than normal. It suggests a delay in the arrival of the rainy season. How much water must be prepared for the start of the rainy season? More than 80% of areas outside the irrigation area must prepare to deal with this as well. and most importantly, farmers And farmers must follow the situation closely. because of the weather It is everyone’s life and existence.
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