“Replacing fossil fuels used by industry and transportation with electricity”
“Electricity demand in 2050 will be mostly covered by renewable energy”
1,400 trillion in facility investment alone…Inevitability of electricity rate hike
Doubts about whether renewable energy will fill power generation capacity
On the morning of the 5th, Yoon Soon-jin, chairperson of the Civil Society of the Carbon Neutrality Committee, announces the ‘2050 Carbon Neutral Scenario (draft)’ at the Government Complex Seoul in Jongno-gu. News 1
The gist of the draft ‘carbon neutral scenario’ of the 2050 Carbon Neutrality Committee under the direct control of the President announced on the 5th is to replace fossil fuels currently used in each sector, such as industry, transportation, and buildings, with electricity with ‘low greenhouse gas emissions’.
The key is power. If this scenario becomes a reality, the committee predicted that Korea’s electricity demand in 2050 will more than triple compared to 2018. It is estimated that electricity demand in 2050 (1,165.4-1,215.3 terawatt-hours/TWh) is expected to surge by 204.2-212.9% compared to 2018 due to the progress of electrification by sectors such as industry, transportation, and buildings. To this end, the committee said that it is necessary to increase the proportion of renewable energy from only 6.5% of the total power generation sources in 2019 to 56.6-70.8% by 2050.
However, the reality of this is immediately controversial. The question is whether the government, which has been advocating for a nuclear-free policy, will be able to provide most of the electricity it needs three times more with renewable energy without expanding nuclear power plants. This is because it will not be easy to overcome the burden of huge facility investment and electricity rate hike.
In the actual scenario, the committee proposed that the proportion of nuclear power, which currently accounts for 25.9% of total power generation (as of 2019), should be reduced to 6.1-7.2% by 2050. This means that by 2050, only nine nuclear power plants will remain, including Shin-Kori Nuclear Power Plants 2-6, Shin-Wolsong Units 1 and 2, and Shin-Hanul Units 1 and 2.
However, in this case, a huge cost is required. According to the analysis of Lee Jong-ho, former head of Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power’s technical division, if the proportion of nuclear power generation is reduced to 13% in 2050 and replaced with new and renewable energy, about 1,400 trillion won is expected to be required only for power plant investment. This is because there is a need for an energy storage system (ESS) to store the solar power generated during the day. “The annual power generation cost will also increase significantly from 51 trillion won in 2019 to 166 trillion won in 2050,” Lee said.
The accuracy of the power forecast for this scenario is also controversial. The scenario forecasts the total power supply generation in 2050 to be 1,207.7~1,259.4TWh, and suggested that a minimum of 710TWh (56.6%) and a maximum of 891.5TWh (70.8%) should be supplied from renewable energy such as solar and wind power. For this purpose, the power generation facility alone is estimated to be over 510 gigawatts (GW), but according to the ‘2020 Energy White Paper’ published by the Korea Energy Agency, the maximum supply of solar and wind power in Korea is only 434 GW.
Kim Hyun-woo reporter 777hyunwoo@hankookilbo.com
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