Epigenetics & Diabetes: Cardiovascular Risk Study
New Epigenetic Test Accurately Predicts Cardiovascular Risk in Type 2 Diabetes Patients
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Type 2 diabetes significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular disease,a leading cause of death worldwide.However, current risk assessment tools are often imprecise. New research from Lund university in Sweden has identified epigenetic biomarkers – chemical changes to DNA – that can accurately predict which individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes will develop serious cardiovascular complications. This breakthrough offers the potential for earlier intervention and more effective preventative care.
How Epigenetics Reveals Cardiovascular Risk
The study, published in Cell Reports Medicine, followed 752 individuals newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes from the Skåne region of Sweden (part of the ANDIS cohort – All New Diabetics in Skåne). Researchers monitored their cardiovascular health for over seven years, observing serious complications in 102 participants.
The core of the research focused on DNA methylation, an epigenetic process that controls gene activity. “By studying chemical changes in the participants’ genome – so-called DNA methylation – we wanted to find epigenetic biomarkers that predict cardiovascular disease,” explains Professor Charlotte Ling, a leading diabetes researcher at Lund University. “DNA methylation controls which genes are active or turned off in our cells, and when it does not work properly, it can contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease.”
Researchers identified over 400 sites in the blood with altered DNA methylation patterns. From these, they developed a scoring scale utilizing 87 sites to assess an individual’s risk. This epigenetic score provides a more nuanced understanding of cardiovascular risk than traditional methods.
High Accuracy in Predicting Low Risk
The results were striking. The scoring scale demonstrated a 96% probability of correctly identifying individuals not at risk of developing cardiovascular disease – a strong negative predictive value.
“We could say with a 96 percent probability whether someone was not at risk of developing cardiovascular disease,” says Sonia García-Calzón, researcher at the University of Navarre, Pamplona. “The negative prediction value was thus very strong. As the follow-up of the participants of just over seven years is relatively short, we need to follow them longer in order to probably also get a stronger positive prediction value – that is, how great the probability is that a person will actually get a macrovascular event.”
While further research is needed to refine the positive predictive value (the ability to accurately identify those who will develop cardiovascular disease), the current findings represent a notable step forward.
Implications for Patient care and Future Diagnostics
this research has significant implications for the management of type 2 diabetes. Individuals identified as high-risk can benefit from proactive interventions, including:
lifestyle Modifications: Personalized diet plans, increased physical activity, and weight management strategies.
Improved Blood Sugar Control: More intensive monitoring and treatment to optimize glycemic control.
cardiovascular Protection: Early initiation of medications known to protect the heart and blood vessels.
Currently, healthcare professionals rely on clinical variables like age, gender, blood pressure, smoking status, cholesterol levels, kidney function, and long-term blood sugar control to estimate cardiovascular risk. However, these factors provide a relatively broad assessment.
“Healthcare today uses clinical variables…but it is indeed a rather blunt tool,” notes Professor Ling. “If you add DNA methylation, you have a much better measure of a future risk.”
The research team is now working to develop a clinical kit based on this discovery. This kit would allow for a simple blood sample to be analyzed for DNA methylation patterns, providing a personalized risk assessment using the newly developed scoring scale. This promises a future where cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes patients can be predicted with greater accuracy, leading to more targeted and effective preventative care.
Source:
Journal reference: García-Calzón, S., et al. (2025). Epigenetic biomarkers predict macrovascular events in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Cell Reports Medicine*. doi.org/10.1016/j.xcrm.2025.102290.