Europe Life Expectancy: Limits Not Yet Reached, But Regional Gaps Widen

Life expectancy gains in Europe have stalled in recent years, with a widening gap between regions that continue to see improvements and those where progress has stagnated, according to a new study published in Nature Communications. While a biological limit to human longevity has not been reached, the research highlights growing regional disparities and the crucial role of mortality rates between the ages of 55 and 74 in determining overall life expectancy trends.

The study, analyzing data from almost 400 million inhabitants across 450 regions in 13 Western European countries between 1992 and 2019, reveals a divergence in longevity trajectories. Regions in Northern Italy, Switzerland and parts of Spain continue to demonstrate consistent gains – approximately two-and-a-half months per year for men and one-and-a-half months for women – mirroring rates observed in previous decades. In France, Paris and surrounding areas, along with the Anjou region and areas bordering Switzerland, also showed strong progress, reaching a life expectancy of 83 years for men and 87 years for women in 2019.

However, other regions, particularly in East Germany, Wallonia in Belgium, and parts of the United Kingdom, have experienced a significant slowdown in life expectancy gains since 2005, with progress reaching a near standstill. This shift marks a departure from the 1990s and early 2000s, a period characterized by rapid improvements and a convergence in regional life expectancies across Europe.

Researchers found that the key factor driving this divergence is mortality rates between the ages of 55 and 74. While infant mortality remains low and mortality rates for those over 75 continue to decelerate, a stagnation or increase in deaths within this 55-74 age bracket is significantly impacting overall life expectancy trends. What we have is particularly noticeable in women living in Mediterranean coastal regions of France and across much of Germany.

The study does not pinpoint the exact causes for this trend, but suggests potential contributing factors include lifestyle choices such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor nutrition, and lack of physical exercise. The economic crash of 2008 is also cited as a potential exacerbating factor, with some regions experiencing lasting health consequences while others continued to thrive.

The findings underscore that improvements in medical advancements alone are not sufficient to guarantee continued gains in life expectancy. Social and economic factors play a crucial role, and addressing regional disparities is essential to ensure that the benefits of increased longevity are shared more equitably.

The research team emphasizes that the COVID-19 pandemic’s long-term effects on these trends remain uncertain, as 2019 was used as the cut-off date for analysis. However, separate research indicates the pandemic significantly impacted life expectancy, diverting it from long-term trends and creating inequalities in excess mortality across European regions. A study published in Scientific Reports in February 2024 highlighted the relationship between the COVID-19 mortality burden and the pre-pandemic health capital of European regions, measured by life expectancy.

a report from News-Medical.net, published on February 25, 2025, noted that life expectancy gains in Europe slowed after 2011, with the COVID-19 pandemic accelerating declines. The report highlighted that some countries maintained progress through sustained public health policies.

The study’s authors caution against assuming a fixed “biological human longevity ceiling.” While acknowledging the possibility of limits, they argue that continued progress is possible, particularly in regions that have not yet reached their full potential. The interactive online application developed by the research team provides detailed regional data for further exploration.

the future of human longevity in Europe hinges on addressing the widening gap between thriving and lagging regions. The study suggests that Europe risks becoming a two-tiered system, with a minority of areas continuing to push the boundaries of longevity while a majority experience diminishing gains.