Europe’s Anxiety Over Trump’s Victory: Implications for US-China Relations and Global Trade

Robin Niblett is a prominent fellow at Chatham House, a think tank in London. He directed the organization from 2007 to 2022. Niblett specializes in the relations between Europe, the United States, and Asia. He wrote the book The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century. This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus.

Europeans are worried about Donald Trump’s recent presidential win. They feel anxious about his potential second term. Even if he brings a ceasefire in Ukraine, European governments must provide security guarantees and military support. They fear that Trump will not support Ukraine’s NATO membership, which is essential to deter Russian aggression.

Europeans are concerned about possible tariffs from Trump. The EU has a significant trade surplus with the US. Major economies like France and Germany depend on exports. Increased tariffs would hurt them economically.

Trump’s threats of high tariffs on Chinese exports could shift those exports to Europe. This could strain European producers further. If Europe tries to attract more Chinese investments, Trump might increase restrictions on European exports to the US.

Additionally, Europeans worry Trump’s re-election marks a decline in US global leadership. He has indicated plans to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, a critical priority for many European countries.