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Examining the Current State of the Bitcoin Market: Trends, Predictions, and ETFs

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Since Bitcoin breached its all-time high of $73,777 on the 14th of last month, it has continued its sluggish trend in the $60,000 range. Based on domestic won, as much as 90 million won was given.

However, in the larger trend, Bitcoin has never fallen below $59,600 in the past month, and conversely, it has never risen above $73,000. In fact, it moves sideways.

As Bitcoin gradually reduces its volatility, various predictions are coming out in the market.

Bullish advocates believe that “Bitcoin is nearing the end of its correction and will now rise.” On the contrary, bearers argue that “$73,777 was the peak of this increase and all that remains is for it to decrease.”

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According to CoinMarketCap on the 29th, Bitcoin closed trading on the 28th at $63,118, down 0.54% from 24 hours ago. Based on domestic Upbit standards, it recorded 90.53 million earned, down 1.06% from the previous day.

Over the past weekend, Bitcoin showed a relatively quiet trend. The price of Ethereum showed a rebound as some good news related to the exchange traded fund (ETF) was reported, but Bitcoin plunged about 1% from 7 am on the 29th, erasing all the good trends seen in altcoins over the weekend I threw away.

As of this afternoon, Bitcoin is down nearly 1.5%, dropping to 89.15 million Korean won. However, unlike in the past, the kimchi premium is maintained at a low level of 3.5%.

Zoom image Virtual asset market capitalization excluding top 10 coins

The concerns of altcoin, known as jobcoin investors, are deepening.

According to Trading View, the market capitalization of virtual assets excluding the top 10 market capitalizations such as Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently $264.1 billion, a decrease of 28.05% from $367.1 billion when Bitcoin reached its highest point on the 14th.

Given that Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell by 15.07% during the same period, the drop in altcoins is twice as much as altcoins. Bitcoin is moving sideways and dropping a bit, which is why altcoin investors are complaining loudly.

Enlarge photo Bitcoin spot ETF mutual fund flow.<파사이드인베스터스>

Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the Bitcoin price trend has been following the ETF. As ETF pooled fund inflows show a lull, the price of Bitcoin also appears sluggish.

The problem is that spot Bitcoin ETFs have been showing a net outflow recently. As the money-absorbing ETFs Blackrock and Fidelity show slow trends, only the outflow of GBTC from the Scale continues.

Given the current situation where Bitcoin follows the flow of the spot fund Bitcoin ETF, if withdrawals from the ETF accelerate, the decline in the price of Bitcoin is likely to accelerate.

Zoom image Fidelity Ethereum spot ETF registered in DTCC

Ethereum price rebounded slightly over the weekend as news emerged that US asset management firm Franklin Templeton had recently registered an Ethereum spot ETF with the US Securities Depository (DTCC).

Franklin Templeton registered the ticker ‘EZET’ with DTCC, an American securities depository. DTCC is a company responsible for clearing and settling the US spot market and plays a role similar to Korea Securities Depository Korea. However, registration with DTCC does not mean that the listing is complete.

The key to listing ETFs in the United States is screening by the stock exchange and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and DTCC registration is one of the processes for launching. Bitcoin spot ETF also had a history of raising expectations as it became known that BlackRock had registered a ticker in DTCC during the listing process.

However, the industry is still pessimistic about the Ethereum ETF spot. “We don’t understand (Franklin Templeton’s registration of Ethereum spot ETF with DTCC),” said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst “We are very pessimistic that this will be approved in May.”

Justin Sun, the founder of the virtual currency ‘Tron’, also posted on his “We need to establish a long-term education system to help regulators understand,” he said.

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There is also positive news. On the 28th (local time), Bloomberg reported that the Australian Stock Exchange plans to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF within the year.

Bloomberg reported, “ETF issuers such as the Australian arm of VanEck and Beta Shares Holdings have applied to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF in Australia,” and added, “The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), which handles about 80% of Australian stock transactions , will be the first in Australia within this year.” “We would approve the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF,” he predicted.

Justin Ajaden, head of digital assets business at BetaShares, said, “The success of the Bitcoin spot ETF launched in the US stock market proved that the demand for digital assets really exists,” adding, “BetaShares also supports Bitcoin and Ethereum ( “We have kept a ticker on the ASX for the launch of an ETH spot ETF,” he explained.

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According to CryptoQuant, a blockchain data analysis company, the total Bitcoin currently held by global virtual asset exchanges is 1,930,593, an increase of 0.11% from the previous day.

The Coinbase premium, which indicates the buying sentiment of American investors, is -0.0075%.

According to CryptoQuant, the kimchi premium, which indicates buying sentiment in the Korean market, is 4.18%.

Buying sentiment for Bitcoin is falling in the US and Korea.

Open interest, which represents the number of contracts that have not yet appointed positions in the futures market, fell 2.91% from the previous day. It has decreased by 0.09% compared to a week ago.

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