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Expectations for Rate Hike by US Federal Open Market Committee Decrease in Federal Funds Interest Rate Futures Market

In the Federal Funds (FF) interest rate futures market on October 19th, it was reported that expectations for an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had declined. This shift in sentiment can be attributed to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who emphasized a cautious approach to policy decisions.

According to experts, the probability of a rate hike during the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled between October 31st and November 1st, is now deemed to be low.

Furthermore, market expectations for a 0.25% rate increase at the FOMC meeting in December currently stand at approximately 35%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate of 38% prior to Powell’s statement.

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In the Federal Funds (FF) interest rate futures market on the 19th, expectations for an interest rate increase by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decreased. Photograph taken in June 2022 (2023 Reuters/Sarah Silbiger)

[19日 ロイター] – In the Federal Funds (FF) interest rate futures market on the 19th, expectations for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decreased. This comes after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that policy decisions will be “continued with caution.”

There is little chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, which takes place between October 31st and November 1st.

Expectations for a 0.25% rate hike at the FOMC meeting in December are currently around 35%. Before Mr. Powell, it was around 38%.

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