Corruption at the highest level, deficiencies in the rule of law and dubious treatment of national minorities: At the beginning of 2022, it still seemed unthinkable that Ukraine could become a serious candidate for joining the EU in the foreseeable future.
A good 20 months after the start of the Russian war of aggression against the Eastern European country, the world is a different place. After granting Ukraine candidate status back in June 2022, the EU Commission today presents a highly anticipated report on the country’s recent progress on its path to the European Union.
What exactly is it about?
When the EU states granted Ukraine candidate status last year, they also agreed that the next step in the accession process could only be taken after seven reform requirements had been met. The EU Commission report by Ursula von der Leyen now assesses how far Ukraine has come with the reforms so far.
What would be the next step in the accession process?
That would be the opening of accession negotiations. These negotiations ensure that a candidate country incorporates all EU legislation into national law.
Which reforms are a prerequisite for the start of negotiations?
The EU demands from Ukraine, among other things, a stronger fight against corruption, compliance with standards in the fight against money laundering and a law against the excessive influence of oligarchs. It is also about media freedom and the protection of national minorities, for example.
Is it already clear what the Commission’s assessment will be?
According to information from the German Press Agency, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will present a positive assessment of the country’s reform progress and officially recommend that the governments of the EU states begin accession negotiations.
Accordingly, the EU Commission assumes that outstanding reform steps can be completed by Ukraine in a short time and are not a reason to postpone the fundamental decision on the start of accession negotiations. The approval of the heads of state and government of the EU states could thus take place at the EU summit on December 14th and 15th, as the government in Kiev had hoped.
In order to ensure that Ukraine checks off the conditions that have not yet been fulfilled, it would probably then be agreed to make further necessary decisions for the negotiations dependent on this. The formal start of negotiations within the framework of the first accession conference could therefore still be a long time coming.
In which areas are there still deficits?
During a visit to Kiev at the weekend, Von der Leyen called for an even more vigorous fight against corruption and the adoption of the new law on lobbying activities. She also called for the tightening of regulations on the declaration of assets and the full implementation of recommendations for the protection of national minorities.
The last point is important to the EU country Hungary, for example. In the past, for example, the government in Budapest was of the opinion that Ukraine was violating the rights of the Hungarian ethnic minority in the Zakarpattia region – for example through an education law that only allows school lessons in the minorities’ languages to a limited extent.
If Ukraine fails to deliver on the reforms, it risks vetoes. All relevant decisions regarding the accession process require unanimity among the EU states.
Why are the Commission and Kiev accelerating on the issue of accession?
Both sides want to show the more than 40 million Ukrainians that they have the prospect of becoming EU citizens. The start of accession negotiations could also be a further sign that freedom and democracy are worth fighting for. “You are fighting not only for your own freedom, democracy and future, but also for ours,” von der Leyen recently said to the Ukrainian people.
How long does it take from the start of accession talks to joining the EU?
Nobody can predict that. Turkey, for example, became an EU candidate in 1999 – and has probably never been further away from membership than it is today. Theoretically, a candidate for membership can never become a member.
What role does Russia’s war play in Ukraine’s EU path?
Probably a double-edged one. On the one hand, without the war, Ukraine would probably never have received candidate status so quickly. On the other hand, the war is likely to make necessary adjustment processes more difficult. In addition, it is considered impossible for Ukraine to become an EU member before the end of the war. Kiev could then demand military assistance from other EU states in accordance with Article 42, Paragraph 7 of the EU Treaty – the EU would officially be a party to the war.
