Good morning, dear reader,
The choice between worries and problems is not difficult. You have to live with worries. Problems can be solved. You may have to rack your brains, work hard and put in the work, but then it’s time to check it out and move on with the text. That’s how it should be.
The urgently needed help for Ukraine has finally come to fruition. Europe supplies ammunition. The US Congress also finally overcame its self-blockade. Zelensky’s soldiers will soon be able to stand up to the Russian invaders again. And we in Germany can breathe a sigh of relief and turn our attention to other problems – right? Unfortunately, that is wishful thinking.
In addition to the shortage of ammunition, which can be solved with Western help, there is another serious shortage: the in Soldiers. Due to the Ukrainian losses, units are quickly regrouped. Depleted soldiers fill the gaps and leave new ones elsewhere. Larger associations break down into smaller units (seen here). The coordination doesn’t work. Admittedly, something like this can happen on a difficult section of the front. That would still not be a warning sign for the state of the Ukrainian army in general. But the problem is not local. It became clear during the summer offensive last year: the Ukrainian troops are not able to coordinate with each other larger associations to operate. They lack training for complex maneuvers at all levels of the military hierarchy.
The staff gaps are huge. Many officers who were trained to NATO standards and who stopped Putin’s invasion two years ago are wounded or dead. Inexperienced recruits have learned to use Western weapons systems – but operations in which Infantry, tanks and Artillery They haven’t practiced working together on a large scale and with precise timing. Why not? Because they are needed in constant use at the front. You don’t have time to train.
The defenders lack reserves – and the consequences are becoming increasingly obvious. Russian associations are recording successes not only at Avdiivka, but also in the north. Putin’s soldiers may be poorly trained, but they are outnumbered (here you can see the comparison). Their commanders are unimpressed by the horrendous number of casualties. The subordinates are threatened with execution if they lack the will to fight. Nevertheless, enough Russians find their way into Putin’s bestial war machine, especially young men from poor backgrounds. They are lured by the generous pay – and many only realize once they get there that the prospect of making quick money ends in a fresh grave.
In Ukraine, on the other hand, young people already have a more realistic picture of the horror at the front. Who can blame them for not wanting to go there? The lack of commitment After much hesitation, President Zelenskyj passed legislation and set the draft age of 27 on 25 years lowered. In addition, it has become almost impossible to keep up with Bribe money to buy freedom from conscription. The result is ugly scenes: policemen in uniform drag those unwilling to serve from buses or grab them in bars. No wonder that the pop star president in Kiev shied away from unpopular coercive measures until it was no longer possible.
The hesitation in Kiev seems understandable, but it is now taking a bitter toll. Because unlike the shortage of ammunition, this can be done Lack of trained soldiers cannot be fixed with the stroke of a pen. It will Sweet It will take time until the teams, which so far only exist on paper, can confront Putin’s troops. This is getting on the Ukrainians’ nerves.
However, it remains unclear how effectively the Russians can exploit the weaknesses of the Ukrainian defenders. Their room for maneuver may be limited by tripping over their own feet. Poor training, outdated equipment, unqualified commanders and shaky logistics are taking their toll. With suicidal ones “Meat Grinder Attacks” They have broken through the front at certain points. But you can’t exploit the gaps quickly, skillfully and mobile with this crazy tactic. Much now depends on what the Russian commanders learned over the course of the war. Now it will become clear in which areas their cumbersome apparatus has remained exactly the same.
The military initiative now lies with the Russians. Your offense will be in May or June expected. Ukraine’s European and American supporters appear to have addressed the shortage of ammunition and thus solved an important problem. But God knows we can’t put the war in Ukraine behind us. The worries remain. Big worries.
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