Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), posted a Facebook page stating that Global Recessions: The world is in recession!!! It states that we often face recessions, but global recessions are a number of more serious problems. is like this It’s because the recession is normal. that happens often
Developed countries have experienced a total of about 150 recessions since the 1960s. As the economy expands for a while, problems accumulate. After all, it often goes into a temporary recession. Going into a recession washes away problems. weak company Must be closed during this period. People who are unemployed, including those who are over-employed, lose their jobs during this period.
Banks manage bad debt problems from the Balance Sheets if there is high inflation. Inflation will decrease during this period. If there is a bubble, it will flatten. All will help Set zero to the system, after which it will enter a new starting point. at low interest Banks start lending, bright stocks, companies start to reopen, expand businesses, start hiring, people start spending, good news in 5-6 days in 7 days
Expansion-Recession or Expansion-Recession cycle This is normal in every country. which normally expands for 4-5 years, followed by 4-5 quarters of recession, alternating
“Business has its ups and downs,” so does the economy. “It’s ups and downs.”
time spent sometimes shorter sometimes longer depending on how deep the problem is If there is a financial crisis The crisis of the bubble burst with a lot of bad debt included, it will take more time
For example, during Tom Yum Kung in Thailand or Subprime in the United States, the country that caused the crisis. It usually takes another 3-4 years after the recession to recover. before returning to normal health can restart
The U.S. post-subprime declines 1.5 years, followed by four to five years of solving the problem. The Dow Jones peak was at 14,000 in late 2007, to return to where it was in 2013.
As for the US home price that was the highest in 2006, before home prices are booming again, it has to be 2012. Before it goes back to the same point, it has to be 2016.
Thailand after Tom Yum Kung in 1997, until the stocks start to recover, it must be in 2002-2003, but if there is no domestic financial crisis The recovery will also be particularly fast, for example, Thailand after 2008 Subprime, where the following year our stocks began to recover actively and in 2010 were able to return to the same place. (While the US still requires another 3 years)!!!
Only the economic recession in this round Going to upgrade to Global Recessions!!! that “the whole world” is experiencing this condition at the same time. Although some countries are still able to expand, but in Global Recessions, the world as a whole has reduced the size of the economy!!!
events of this nature It happened only 5 times in the past 70 years:
1975 – The First Oil Shock Crisis
1982 – After the Fed raises interest rates sharply to fight inflation after the Second Oil Shock.
1991 – After the Gulf War and another hike in world oil prices.
2009 – After the Subprime Crisis
2020 – The city is closed at the same time. First round from Covid-19
All cycles of “Global Recession” or “Synchronized Recessions” are not specific to one country.
What is worrying is that from the beginning people came out and said that this country, this country, the economy is slowing down. What awaits us in this round Upgrading to Global Recessions again
If you think about it. 1975 1982 1991 The problem started with the price of oil that threatens every country.
This time too world oil price combined with world food prices It affects everyone at the same time, leading to the highest inflation crisis in 30-40 years in almost every country.
For this reason, the central banks of various countries Therefore, strict policies are needed to wage war on inflation. Requires a strong drug And based on these various central bank policies, the market further forecasts that There will be a number of countries that will start entering Recession (seriously) later this year, early next year, and the Recession may be coming sooner than we think. If the gas pipeline crisis in Europe spreads
This is in line with analysts from Nomura who are expecting seven countries to face trouble, namely the US, the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, Korea, Australia and Canada over the next 12 months. Received with the IMF’s President who issued a warning last week. Accepted with the world bank chief economist who also warned about this. And the more China has internal problems. The recession of the world around this there will be no helper
All of this will have implications for global energy prices. commodity price asset prices As we have seen in the past 1 month and will have implications for Thailand in the future inevitably because we are part of the global economy
All in all, luckily we still have some time. If we take the rest Taking advantage of the opportunities opened by food-price crises, energy prices and international conflicts both in terms of agricultural products exporting to the US travel investment in renewable energy and the interest that everyone has increased with ASEAN
We will be able to relax lightly. can pass
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#world economy recession
FB Kobsak Phutrakul
