Global | 2024.04.11 02:35
[뉴욕=뉴스핌] Reporter Kim Min-jeong = American investment bank (IB) Goldman Sachs postponed the expected start date of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut between June and July. This is because the Federal Reserve believes that it will be difficult to cut the interest rate immediately in June as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March was higher than Wall Street forecasts.
Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, predicted on the 10th (local time) that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates starting in July. Goldman expected to start cutting interest rates in June.
The expected number of interest rate cuts has also been reduced. The economist Hatzius, who had expected a total of three interest rate cuts this year in June, September, and December, judged that only two interest rate cuts would occur in July and November.
“I think the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) needs to see a longer run of moderate inflation levels out in the months following the stubborn inflation data from January to March,” said economist Hatzius.
United States Federal Reserve System (Fed).[사진=로이터 뉴스핌] 2024.04.11 mj72284@newspim.com
On this day, the US Department of Labor announced that the CPI in March rose 3.5% compared to the previous year. This was a steeper price rise than the 3.2% in February and was also higher than Wall Street’s forecast of 3.4%.
In the market, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts this year have retreated significantly. According to FedWatch, a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) group, participants in the federal funds interest rate futures market (FF) are most likely reflecting the possibility that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. One interest rate cut this year is most likely. Even before the CPI announcement, the market expected that the Federal Reserve would start lowering interest rates in June and cut interest rates a total of three times until December.
The Federal Reserve maintained expectations of three interest rate cuts this year by freezing interest rates at the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which ended on the 20th of last month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized that it would not be appropriate to cut interest rates until there is more confidence that inflation is gradually moving towards 2%.
mj72284@newspim.com
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