◀ Anchor Kim Pil-guk ▶
These days, missiles of various ranges are launched around the Korean Peninsula every day.
North Korea demonstrates its impressive ability to target the Pacific Ocean in Japan and South Korea, and a counter-force demonstration by South Korea, the United States, and Japan, led by a US aircraft carrier, is also on the in progress
◀ Anchor Cha Mi-yeon ▶
North Korea has even conducted fighter-bomber shooting training, which is unusual.
Although South Korea, the United States and Japan profess a strong response, it seems difficult to find a trick to prevent North Korean provocations.
Reporter Choi Yoo-chan pointed this out.
◀ Report ▶
2pm on the 6th.
Eight fighters, four bombers, and a total of 12 North Korean Air Force aircraft took off from Goksan Airport and conducted ground fire training within five minutes of the armistice line.
[신종우/국방안보포럼 연구위원]
“They seem to have been trained in air-to-ground bombing by stimulating even bombers, and they seem to have been trained to hit virtual targets.”
The South Korean military immediately dispatched 30 F-15 fighters in response.
Over 40 fighter jets faced each other for about an hour over the Korean Peninsula.
[양욱/아산정책연구원 연구위원]
“It would be appropriate to say that it is almost incomparable compared to the air power of the Republic of Korea, and from the perspective of the North, to show some of their capabilities.”
North Korea, unable to keep up with speed and performance and lacking jet fuel, has staged an unusual display of air power due to the re-entry of the US nuclear aircraft carrier ‘Ronald Reagan’.
[뉴스데스크/9월 23일]
“The US nuclear aircraft carrier ‘Ronald Reagan’, a representative strategic weapon of the US, arrived at Busan Port today with dozens of fighters.”
The Reagan conducted four-day joint ROK-US naval exercises from the 26th to the 30th, followed by a joint anti-submarine exercise that joined the Japan Self-Defense Forces on the 30th and proceeded to Japan.
The Ronald Reagan is a powerful combat unit capable of delivering a lethal strike to North Korea without warning in the East Sea in case of an emergency, carrying 90 different aircraft and fighters and 5,000 crew members on a flight deck three times the size football field .
[마이클 도널리/미국 해군 5항모강습단장(9월 23일)]
“The operation of the ‘Ronald Reagan’ and the Carrier Strike Squadron demonstrates their resolve and commitment to defend Korea regardless of challenges or dangers that arise.”
This year, when North Korea broke its promise to stop the launch of long-range missiles and carried out missile provocations one after another, it came to the Korean Peninsula for the first time in five years and showed its majesty.
North Korea has launched a series of short-range ballistic missiles.
[신승기/국방연구원 연구위원]
“It seems that the intention is to prevent the combined ROK-US naval forces from coming to the East Sea by firing several things towards the East Sea, even if one (missile) hits the other.”
The last 4 days when the Ronald Reagan left the Korean Peninsula after the completion of the anti-submarine warfare between the United States and Japan.
A provocation was carried out that crossed the North Korean line.
The Hwasong-12 missile was launched in a normal orbit without reducing its range by firing at a high angle, passing over the Japanese archipelago.
[신승기/국방연구원 연구위원]
“We were unable to test the maximum range during the high-angle launch, but now the reliability and safety of the engine has been ensured, and the development of the Hwasong class 12 is almost complete.”
The Ronald Reagan immediately turned the bow back to the East Sea.
It is the first time a US aircraft carrier returning from a return trip has resumed joint exercises between South Korea, the US and Japan.
There were also armed demonstrations on the ground.
On the 4th, when North Korea launched the Hwasong-12 into the sea of Japan, the South Korean military fired four missiles, including the Atacms, into the East Sea.
North Korea fired a mixture of short-range missiles, the KN-23 and KN-25, simultaneously on the 6th before the fighter sortie.
North Korea immediately responded to the overwhelming military power of the ROK and the US with aggressive provocation.
The fact that North Korea has even mobilized old fighter jets and staged air power demonstrations is being interpreted as a so-called preemptive tactic, including nuclear war, total war, and a decisive battle in South military pressure Korea, United States. , and Japan.
[조한범/통일연구원 선임연구위원]
“There has never been a case in the past that an immediate military provocation was carried out in a give-and-take style in response to an immediate ROK-US response. It can be seen as an unprecedented change in North Korea’s strategy. The legitimization of exchanges is considered as a background.”
At the same time, it is a strategy that reveals the incompleteness of the missile defense system that South Korea and the United States have.
[신승기/국방연구원 연구위원]
“If the target interception rate is usually 70% to 80% higher, you get 90%. That’s why, in fact, I don’t shoot one shot to catch one shot, but two shots to catch one shot .”
Unlike in the past, the South Korean government makes it clear that North Korean provocations will inevitably come at a cost, and that it will respond with a deterrence strategy based on the overwhelming combined forces of the ROK and the US and stronger sanctions against North. Korea before controlling the situation.
The problem is that such a response is unlikely to be effective in the short term.
In fact, it is difficult to block all of North Korea’s advanced missiles, and even the United Nations Security Council has only confirmed that China and Russia are North Korea’s supporters rather than blocking North Korea’s missile launches.
[린다 토머스-그린필드/유엔 미국 대사 (10월 5일)]
“North Korea has enjoyed the warm protection provided by two members of the Security Council (China and Russia). China and Russia have been convincing in justifying North Korea’s repeated provocations.”
On the other hand, concerns about security instability and social chaos caused by North Korea’s provocation are spreading beyond South Korea to Japan.
“Leave inside the building or underground”
On the Korean Peninsula, there are also concerns about armed conflict in the border area around the armistice.
[김종대/연세대 통일연구원 객원교수 (전 국회의원)]
“Apart from the armistice agreement, the 9.19 military agreement is the only one that prevents accidental conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Recognizing it as a peace asset, it should be a military agreement to keep.”
Based on the ROK-US alliance, there is a growing demand for efforts to increase deterrence against North Korea and control for our economic and social stability at the same time.
[김종대/연세대 통일연구원 객원교수 (전 국회의원)]
“From the point of view of crisis management, it does not control the North-South situation, but rather in one direction: some containment of expansion or containment by force, so there is a high probability that the crisis will worsen in an instant.”
It is difficult for North Korea, which is experiencing severe economic difficulties, to show its determination to make a decision forever and continue its military provocations.
We also need a dialogue strategy that encourages North Korea to stop provocations and choose coexistence and development.
This is Choi Yoo-chan from the Unification Observatory.
