How Waymo Robotaxis Are Impacting Uber and Lyft Drivers in Major Cities

Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo captured roughly 15% to 19% of total rider spending on ride-hailing services across its most mature markets in June, according to third-party data shared by industry executives and market research firms. The figures indicate that autonomous vehicles are securing a measurable foothold against human-driven fleets, even as labor market experts debate how the shift will ultimately affect human drivers. Data compiled by market research firm Yipit and highlighted on the social media platform X by Uber Chief Financial Officer Balaji Krishnamurthy showed Waymo taking between 15% and 19% of gross bookings in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. In San Francisco and Los Angeles, Waymo accounted for 15% of gross bookings in June, while capturing 16% in Phoenix. Those figures compare with 16%, 17%, and 19% respectively in January, according to the research. Yipit calculated these market shares by examining trips beginning and ending inside Waymo’s established operating zones. The estimates rely on email receipts drawn from a sample of roughly 1.5 million active US consumer accounts. The data tracks gross bookings, representing total dollars spent on rides, rather than the raw number of individual trips completed. Waymo’s actual share of individual rides could vary depending on how its pricing structure compares with human-driven competitors like Uber and Lyft. Yipit cautioned that Waymo’s market share can appear to contract as the company expands its geographical boundaries into new neighborhoods where the automated service is initially less popular. In May, Waymo announced expectations to expand its Bay Area footprint by an additional 60 square miles. Despite those ongoing expansions, the company’s booking share held steady in the mid-teens across all three major regional markets through June.

Labor Market Impact and Driver Displacements

My initial view is that the impact would not first appear as large numbers of drivers suddenly losing their jobs, Allon told Business Insider. Because driver supply is flexible, the earliest effects would likely show up in utilization, longer waits between rides, fewer trips per hour, and possibly more unpaid repositioning. Allon added that the adjustment process will likely run through reduced working hours and natural attrition rather than formal layoffs. Other industry data highlights shifting dynamics within the rideshare workforce. Last year, figures from ride-hailing data platform Gridwise indicated that hourly driver wages fell in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco—all markets where Waymo operates—while the national median wage rose by 1%. However, researchers noted that available data could not definitively establish autonomous vehicles as the primary cause of the wage declines. Uber Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi stated in a June profile with Fast Company that his company is actively recruiting fewer drivers in certain cities where automated vehicles operate. Simultaneously, Uber reported that an increasing number of human drivers continue to sign up organically as overall consumer demand for rides grows. A spokesperson for Lyft pointed to prepared remarks delivered by CEO David Risher during the company’s second-quarter earnings call on August 6, noting that the firm believes the future of transportation is hybrid. Risher added that Lyft rides within San Francisco’s autonomous vehicle operating area grew approximately 20% year over year. Representatives for Waymo and Uber did not respond to requests for comment.

Measuring the Effects of Gig Economy Automation

We don’t know how much, we don’t know when, we don’t know where, Wells told Business Insider, explaining that researchers would require precise metrics on driver utilization rates and wait times to identify the true effects of automation. Wells also noted that because rideshare drivers operate as independent contractors rather than traditional W-2 employees, displacement caused by robotaxis may not register cleanly as a measurable decline in formal employment statistics. Wells and her coauthors previously tracked a cohort of 40 Uber drivers over a five-year period, documenting how the looming prospect of automation altered driver sentiment long before commercial robotaxis routinely appeared on city streets. She observed that drivers frequently felt discouraged from pushing for improved working conditions because they operated under the assumption that human-driven ridesharing was inherently temporary.

Uber drivers kept saying to us, ‘Well, automated vehicles are coming, so they won’t need me anymore,’ Wells said. This is temporary.