The drop in the mainland’s fertility rate has affected the education industry (Xinhua News Agency file photo)
The drop in the fertility rate on the mainland has affected the education industry The number of nursery schools has fallen by 20,400 in the last two years, and as many as 14,800 were closed last year. As the birth rate has fallen further over the past few years, nursery enrollments are expected to continue to face difficulties.
Domestic media “Yicai Global” quoted data from the Ministry of Education saying that there are 289,200 kindergartens on the mainland in 2022, a decrease of 5,610 kindergartens or 1.90% from the previous year. This was the first negative growth since 2008. In 2023, it dropped again to 274,400 nursery schools.
The reduction in the fertility rate has led to a sharp reduction in the number of children who can attend kindergarten. Considering the changes in the birth population over the years, after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the number of births. 17 million in 2016 and 2017, especially reaching 18.83 million in 2016. But in 2018, the second-child effect weakened. The number of births that year was 15.23 million, 14.65 million in 2019, 12 million in 2020, and decreased to just 9.02 million in 2023.
There will be a surplus of around 1.5 million primary school teachers in 2035
Ding Changfa, associate professor of the Department of Economics at Xiamen University, analyzed that kindergartens in rural areas and areas with population outflows are more affected from an urban and rural perspective. From the city’s point of view, the majority of public kindergartens have better operating conditions and will be less affected, while ordinary private kindergartens will be more affected.
The reduction in the number of children in nursery schools is expected to gradually affect primary schools, junior secondary schools, secondary schools and universities. Qiao Jinzhong, associate professor at the Institute of Higher Education, Faculty of Education, Beijing Normal University, pointed out that according to his team’s model predictions, the national demand for primary schools and junior high schools in 2035 will be 92,800 and 47,900 in the respectively, and a reduction of 51,400 and 3,800 respectively from 2020. Among them, negative population growth has a greater impact on primary schools than junior secondary schools. He analysed, based on current student-teacher ratio standards, there will be a surplus of around 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 junior high school teachers across the country by 2035. Demand for primary school teachers is high, and there will be a shortage and then a surplus of junior high school teachers.
The original article was published on AM730
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