Kasikorn Bank Forecasts Continued Strengthening of Baht Value: Key Factors Analyzed

Kasikorn Bank’s Forecast for the Baht Value Next Week

Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) has predicted that the value of the baht is set to continue strengthening next week, with an expected range of 34.80-35.50 baht/dollar, according to the Kasikorn Research Center. This appraisal takes into account crucial factors such as Thailand’s 3Q23 GDP numbers, October 2023 export figures, foreign capital signals, and the currency situation in the region.

There are also key US economic figures to watch, including used home sales, durable goods orders for October 2023, the Consumer Confidence Index for November 2023, and the minutes of the Fed meeting held on October 31 – November 1, 2023. Additionally, the market is anticipating the announcement of the Prime Minister’s Lending Rate (LPR) from the People’s Bank of China, as well as preliminary PMI indices for November 2023 for the Eurozone, England, and the United States.

The baht recently reached its strongest level in two and a half months at 35.05 baht/dollar, with the initial depreciation followed by a mid-week return to strength alongside the yuan and other Asian currencies. This turnaround was attributed to the US CPI report coming in below market expectations and an increase in the world market price of gold, which also supported the baht.

Looking ahead, the baht is expected to maintain its strengthening trend until the end of the week. The currency recorded its strongest value in two and a half months at 35.05 baht/dollar, fueled by heavy selling pressure for the dollar and positive US economic data. On November 17, 2023, the baht closed at 35.05 baht/dollar, compared to 35.89 baht/dollar the previous Friday (10 November 2023).

Regarding the status of foreign investment in Thailand, foreign investors bought a net total of 1,985 million baht in Thai stocks between November 13-17, 2023. However, there was a net outflow of 3,225 million baht from the Thai bond market during the same period. This included net sales of bonds amounting to 3,220 million baht and net sales of debt instruments totaling 5 million baht.

Kasikorn Bank Evaluate the movement of the baht value next week (20-24 November 2023), which will continue to strengthen. Appraised at the level of 34.80-35.50 baht/dollar following the main factors. Export and GDP figures for the 3rd quarter

Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) sees the framework of the move from “value of Baht” next week (20-24 November) at the level of 34.80-35.50 baht / dollar by Kasikorn Research Center Evaluate important factors that need to be followed, including 3Q23 GDP numbers and October 2023 export numbers from Thailand, foreign capital signals (Flow) and currency situation in the region.

Meanwhile, important US economic figures include used home sales. Durable goods orders for October 2023, Consumer Confidence Index for November 2023, the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits and the minutes of the Fed meeting held on October 31 – November 1, 2023

In addition, the market is also waiting to follow the Prime Minister’s Lending Rate (LPR) announcement from the People’s Bank of China, as well as preliminary PMI indices for November 2023 for the Eurozone, England, and the United States States too.

The baht reached its strongest level in two and a half months at 35.05 baht / dollar, with the baht depreciating at the start of the week amid strong redemptions of the dollar. Ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, foreign investors’ net selling positions in Thai bonds were also under additional pressure.

However, the baht returned to strength mid-week in line with the yuan and other Asian currencies, while the dollar faced heavy selling pressure after the US CPI came out well below market expectations . In addition, the increase in the price of gold in the world market is also an additional support for the baht.

As for the baht, it still tends to strengthen until the end of the week. and made the strongest record in two and a half months at 35.05 baht/dollar, with the baht appreciating amid heavy selling pressure for the dollar. After the number of weekly jobless claims and the import price index for October 2023 of the United States came out weaker than expected. and encourage the market to have more faith that The Fed may have finished its cycle of raising policy interest rates.

On 17 November 2023, the baht closed at 35.05 baht / dollar, compared to 35.89 baht / dollar the previous Friday (10 November 2023) Regarding the status of the investment portfolio of foreign investors between November 13-17. In 2023, foreign investors bought net Thai stocks 1,985 million baht, but the status of net outflows from the Thai bond market was 3,225 million baht (net sales of bonds 3,220 million baht and debt instruments ended 5 million baht).

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