Monrovia, Liberia – Liberia is facing growing concerns over potential regional instability stemming from the escalating crisis in the Sahel and internal security dynamics, according to a veteran Liberian security analyst. Philipbert Semogai Browne, a former Assistant Defense Minister and intelligence official, warns that the country may be underestimating the risks posed by the “lifting tide of Muslim extremism in West Africa.”
Browne, who also revealed the “Missing 16 Billion” Liberian dollars scandal as a journalist, detailed his concerns in a recent commentary titled “Liberia on High Alert.” He argues that the convergence of developments in the Sahel – particularly the activities of groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) – and internal tensions within Liberia could create vulnerabilities for extremist actors.
“Groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have demonstrated the ability to exploit weak governance structures and social grievances,” Browne wrote. “Liberia must not assume it is immune.” Both JNIM and ISGS have been responsible for widespread violence and displacement across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, targeting civilians, security forces, and state institutions.
While Liberia is not geographically within the Sahel region, Browne emphasizes that porous borders and regional mobility make it susceptible to spillover effects. This concern is echoed by João Gomes Cravinho, the European Union Coordinator for the Sahel Region, who recently warned that the crises in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger could have “medium-term consequences” for Liberia.
Cravinho, during a visit to Liberia, highlighted the vulnerabilities of Liberia’s borders, noting that they remain difficult to effectively monitor. He also pointed to the influx of Burkinabe nationals into Liberian counties bordering Côte d’Ivoire – Grand Gedeh, River Gee, and Nimba – many of whom are seeking farmland due to insecurity in their home country. This migration, he cautioned, could exacerbate existing land disputes, a primary driver of violence within Liberia.
“Many people, when looking at this issue, think, well, since there is so much terrorism in Burkina Faso… are they terrorists coming across the border?” Cravinho reportedly asked, reflecting questions raised by Liberian security officials. The convergence of migration, the formation of ethnic-based security groups, and broader extremist expansion is contributing to growing public anxiety.
A key element of Browne’s concern centers on the emergence of the “National Fula Security of Liberia,” an ethnic-based security grouping. While organizers present it as a community self-protection initiative, critics fear that such formations could inflame communal divisions and inadvertently create opportunities for extremist infiltration. What we have is particularly sensitive given that both the Fula community and many of the Burkinabe migrants are Muslim.
However, security analysts caution against equating religious identity with extremism. Liberia’s Muslim population has a long history of peaceful coexistence with Christian and traditional communities. The risk, experts say, lies in the potential for extremist networks to exploit identity politics for recruitment purposes.
Cravinho described the Sahel crisis as a “polycrisis,” rooted in a complex interplay of socio-economic deprivation, governance failures, youth unemployment, climate change, and geopolitical rivalries. He emphasized that there is no single cause for the instability, but rather a convergence of multiple crises.
Browne’s warning carries significant weight given his extensive experience in Liberian security. During the administration of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, he played a crucial role in alerting authorities to the recruitment of Liberians, particularly from Grand Gedeh County, by rebel factions operating in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire. This intelligence led to arrests and prosecutions in Monrovia, preventing potential cross-border destabilization.
Browne is now urging Liberia to deepen cooperation within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and strengthen collaboration with regional counter-terrorism frameworks. He stresses that proactive intelligence gathering and regional coordination are essential to prevent extremist infiltration. While Liberia has not yet experienced direct spillover violence, Browne warns that complacency would be a dangerous miscalculation. “The consequences of inaction could be devastating,” he stated.
– The situation in the Sahel continues to deteriorate, with violent extremist organizations expanding their reach and posing a significant threat to regional stability, according to a recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action. The report highlights the weakening of international counterterrorism support and leadership in regional efforts as key factors contributing to the crisis.
