Nigeria Oil Production: May Decline & 2mbpd Target
Nigeria’s oil production took a hit in May,dropping to 1.65 million barrels per day—a setback to the country’s ambitious 2mbpd target. This decline, reported by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, jeopardizes the gains made in April, casting doubt on meeting the government’s 2027 and 2030 production goals. President Tinubu has tasked the NNPC with significantly boosting output. The fall in crude oil production, alongside persistent challenges like pipeline vandalism, raises critical questions about Nigeria’s capacity to achieve its targets.News Directory 3 has the data. Discover what’s next for Nigeria’s oil sector.
Nigeria’s Oil Production Decline Raises Concerns About 2 Million Barrel Target
Updated June 13, 2025
Nigeria’s bid to ramp up its oil production has suffered a setback as daily output dipped again in May, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). production fell to 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd) last month, down from 1.68 mbpd in April.
The NUPRC reported that crude oil production specifically decreased from 1.48 mbpd in April to 1.45 mbpd in May. This decline erased the gains made in April, when production rose from 1.40 mbpd in March, sparking hopes of reaching the country’s aspiring 2.1 mbpd target for oil production.
The commission noted that May’s combined crude oil and condensate production ranged from a low of 1.61 mbpd to a high of 1.81 mbpd. The average daily production for May was 1,657,435 barrels, comprising 1,452,941 barrels of crude oil and 204,493 barrels of condensate.
The NUPRC added that average crude oil production reached 97% of the quota set by the Association of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which stands at 1.5 mbpd.
President Bola Tinubu has challenged the Nigerian national Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) to increase oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030. He also directed them to increase gas production and refining capacity.
Upon his inauguration as NNPC’s GCEO in May,Bayo Ojulari stated that the team had begun engaging industry stakeholders to reassess operations.He also said that production had increased from 1.5 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd within two months and was projected to reach 1.9 mbpd by year’s end.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has repeatedly asserted Nigeria’s capacity to produce 3 mbpd. In January 2025, daily production increased from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd.
NUPRC data indicates that total production,including crude oil and condensate,rose to 1.74 mbpd in January from 1.6 mbpd in December, before falling again in February.
What’s next
The Nigerian government is expected to continue efforts to address factors hindering oil production, such as pipeline vandalism and illegal refining, to meet its set targets for increased oil output and revenue generation.