November 15, 2024: Key Updates on the Russian Offensive in Ukraine

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2024

By ISW Analysts: Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, George Barros

The Kremlin is actively trying to influence Western decision-making regarding the war in Ukraine. On November 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Putin urged Western countries to pressure Ukraine into peace talks, rather than continuing military support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the call, calling it a “Pandora’s box” that serves Russia’s interests by reducing its isolation.

Putin and high-ranking Russian officials are increasing their attempts to shape U.S. foreign policy, especially with the new President-elect Donald Trump. They assert an unwillingness to compromise on any negotiation terms and aim to push for complete Ukrainian submission.

In Abkhazia, protests erupted against a deal that would give Russian investors property rights and tax exemptions in the region. Protesters stormed the parliament, demanding the dismissal of the agreement and calling for the resignation of the de facto Abkhaz president. The protests forced the government to postpone the vote. The Russian MFA cautioned against travel to Abkhazia, indicating that the unrest might deter future investments.

Ukraine’s allies are maintaining military support. The Ukrainian “Anna Kyivska” Brigade completed training in France, marking the first brigade to do so under the EU Military Assistance Mission. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed the provision of advanced equipment and training. Additionally, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with Norwegian officials to discuss support for Ukrainian defense technology production.

Key Highlights:

• The Kremlin is increasing its efforts to sway Western nations ahead of potential peace negotiations.
• Protests in Abkhazia against Russia’s influence disrupted a significant investment agreement.
• Military support for Ukraine continues to flow from Western allies.
• Ukrainian forces made advances in recent battles, while Russian forces claimed some minor gains.

Military Developments:
Ukrainian forces recently achieved some advancements in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove. Russian forces also claimed small advancements in several locations, including Kupyansk and Toretsk.

Kremlin Initiatives:
Kremlin efforts include the “Time of Heroes” program aimed at building loyalty among war veterans to the regime. This program seeks to integrate veterans into Russian society and government positions.

Summary of Military Engagements:

• Ukrainian advances in areas like Kursk indicate ongoing conflict.
• Russian forces are renewing attacks in Luhansk and Donetsk but have not achieved significant breakthroughs.
• Positional fighting continues in other regions with limited territorial changes.

Current assessments indicate a complex and fluid situation as military operations unfold on both sides, with ongoing external support for Ukraine continuing to influence the conflict’s dynamics.