Online Holiday Spending Growth: Adobe Report
- Online holiday spending in the United States is forecast to increase by 5.3% year-over-year, reaching $253.4 billion, according to a recent report by Adobe analytics.
- While still representing growth, the projected 5.3% increase is significantly lower than the 8.7% rise observed during the 2022 holiday season (November 1 to December 31).
- Despite economic uncertainties, consumers remain motivated to participate in holiday traditions, including gift-giving and decorating.
U.S. Online Holiday Spending Projected to Rise 5.3% to $253.4 Billion
What Happened
Online holiday spending in the United States is forecast to increase by 5.3% year-over-year, reaching $253.4 billion, according to a recent report by Adobe analytics. This projection, released on Monday, indicates a continued, though decelerating, trend of online shopping during the holiday season. The data is based on analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites,tracking 100 million unique items across 18 product categories.
Alistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty Images
The Slowdown: Context and Comparison
While still representing growth, the projected 5.3% increase is significantly lower than the 8.7% rise observed during the 2022 holiday season (November 1 to December 31). It also falls below the 10-year average annual growth rate of approximately 13%.The exceptionally high 32% year-over-year growth experienced in 2020 was a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic,which forced consumers to rely heavily on online retail options.
| Year | Online Holiday sales Growth (%) |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 32.0% |
| 2021 | 13.0% (approx. 10-year average) |
| 2022 | 8.7% |
| 2023 (Projected) | 5.3% |
Why Consumers Are Still Spending
Despite economic uncertainties, consumers remain motivated to participate in holiday traditions, including gift-giving and decorating. Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s director of digital insights, notes that the holiday season carries a strong sense of obligation and desire to acquire needed goods.consumers are also demonstrating a tendency to stockpile items in anticipation of potential price volatility, which contributes to stabilizing spending levels.
It’s crucial to note that Adobe’s data focuses exclusively on e-commerce. The company estimates that approximately one in four dollars of total holiday sales will be spent online. Overall retail sales figures will encompass both online and brick-and-mortar transactions. Recent data shows that overall retail sales have been steadily increasing, but the rate of growth is also moderating.
The Role of AI in Holiday Shopping
The Adobe Analytics report also highlights the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the holiday shopping experience. Consumers are increasingly utilizing AI-powered chatbots to assist with product searches, price comparisons, and gift recommendations. This trend suggests that AI will play an increasingly meaningful role in shaping consumer behavior during the holiday season and beyond