Analysts at Intercam Casa de Bolsa they consider that the financial support to Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) they do not put the fiscal balance at risk at the close of the six-year term, thanks to the rise in crude oil prices.
Based on our macroeconomic scenario that estimates a higher price of the mix compared to the government, but offset by lower growth, exchange rate, production platform and higher interest rates, we estimate that the government should receive just over 100 billion of pesos in 2024, so the net effect on the tax credit of the Shared Profit Right (DUC) is neutral,” they explained.
It should be remembered that the price of Mexican export mix that was used in the 2024 budget is 56.7 dollars per barrel.
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Which, for analysts, is conservative, since the price on February 13, 2024 was located at $73.03.
If it remains above the price used in the economic package, each additional dollar in the price of the Mexican mixture represents 13.4 billion extra pesos to oil revenues, according to the Treasury’s sensitivity matrix.”
Therefore, Intercam estimates that the primary and public balance will close in line with the original estimates of -1.2% and -4.9% as a % of the GDPrespectively, including the impact of fiscal credit.
Of course, these are not encouraging numbers since they represent the largest deficits in decades and, furthermore, we do not know the amounts of subsidies for new government companies such as the airline, the Mayan train and the refinery, especially with a view to the coming years.” , said.
He government published in Official Journal of the Federation a decree granting a tax credit equivalent to 100% of the DUC amount that corresponds to the months of October, November and December 2023, as well as January 2024.
The stimulus may be credited against the same right that is payable in said monthly periods on account of the annual right corresponding to fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024, respectively.
IT IS NOT THE SOLUTION
He Intercam analysis notes that This tax credit does not resolve or correct the financial course and operational of the oil company.
Nor does it exclude the possibility that the state enterprise requires new support from the government, this or the following years.
This undoubtedly aligns with the recent concern of the Moody’s rating agency, which cut the outlook and rating of Pemex, where without the constant and recurring support of the government the financial situation of the oil company would be insolvent,” he acknowledged.
The brokerage house remembered that the expenditures that the last six-year terms have made to Pemexsince 2015 and considering the projections for 2024, total the amount of 2.2 billion pesos.
These resources come from equity contributions and the reduction of the Shared Utility Right.
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