“Putin cannot let Prigozhin live”

In Ukraine, Russia is on the defensive, then Yevgeny Prigozhin rebelled with his mercenaries. How damaged is Vladimir Putin’s power? Military expert Marcus Keupp analyzes the situation.

Mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin openly challenged Vladimir Putin – and that during the ongoing offensive in Ukraine. The mercenaries had made it far towards Moscow by the time the Wagner uprising ended. Will Putin’s regime recover from this disgrace? What about the Russian army? And what are the Ukrainians planning? Military expert Marcus Keupp answers these questions in an interview.

t-online: Mr. Keupp, Yevgeny Prigozhin rehearsed the uprising with his Wagner mercenaries. What can be learned from the short-term rebellion about the state of the Russian army?

Marcus Keupp: Putin has nothing left up his sleeve. All of the heavy equipment used by the Russian army is in the Ukraine – and around two-thirds of the pre-war stocks have probably been destroyed by now.

How did the Wagner uprising affect the front in Ukraine?

Troops who were still in the Luhansk and Donetsk area last Friday were no longer there on Saturday. First the Wagner mercenaries left, then the Chechens, who were loyal to Putin, followed them. This means that there was a hole in the rear of the front for at least a few hours.

A favorable opportunity for the Ukrainian army…

The Ukrainians, of course, tried to take advantage of this situation. At the same time, however, they hoped that Prigozhin would keep the Kremlin busy for days, or even better, weeks. What is certain is that if there is renewed unrest, Putin will have to withdraw his violent means from Ukraine in order to stabilize his regime. It’s pretty much bare right now, it’s obvious how thin the Russian forces are.

With a high degree of certainty, Prigozhin would have made it pretty close to Moscow.

It can be assumed. Further developments also remain exciting. Prigozhin is said to have been spotted in Belarus, but received pardon from Putin. But the Wagner group is still in the Rostov-on-Don area, and it still occupies two airfields. Will Wagner give it all back voluntarily? We will see.

Marcus Keupp, born in 1977, is a lecturer in military economics at the Military Academy of ETH Zurich. In his research, the habilitated business economist pursues classic military-economic questions and also deals with the security of supply and critical infrastructure. In 2019 his book “military economics“, which is now also available in English and French.

For a long time, Vladimir Putin was considered the absolute ruler of Russia in the West, but now the Wagner rebellion is showing his weakness. What does that say about the power structures in the country?

Since at least 2011, Putin and the so-called siloviki, i.e. his followers from the security and intelligence apparatus, have been able to control Russia with relative ease. But that only worked because they radiated strength and unity to the outside world – and everyone was aware that Putin, as the boss, makes the decisions.

Those who think differently usually regret it quickly.

Anyone who had ambitions for the executive chair or even questioned decisions was summarily killed. And not only at the highest official posts, but also far below. Let’s think of the journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who was shot dead in Moscow in 2006, or the ex-double agent Sergei Skripal, who was poisoned with Novichok in Great Britain in 2018. No one is safe, that was Putin’s unmistakable message.

Political assassination is by no means uncommon in Russia from a historical point of view.

That is the point. This brutality is by no means unique to Putin, but appears again and again in Russian history. Peter the Great had his son tortured to death, Catherine the Great not only staged a coup against her husband, later she also had him eliminated. Let’s not even start with Josef Stalin and others. As oppressive as it is, this is the way Russia works. Its political system is based on violence.

Putin was apparently unable to do this during the uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Putin can’t let Prigozhin live, otherwise he’ll look even weaker than he already is. This posse with the exile in Belarus now offered itself as a face-saving interim solution. However, by now many people in Russia must have gotten the idea that Putin is no longer firmly in the saddle. Actually, Putin should have liquidated Prigozhin by Sunday at the latest in order to assert his leadership role.