[Epoch Times News on August 24, 2021]Hello, everyone, it is 6:30 pm on August 23rd, US Eastern Time, and August 24th, Beijing Time. Welcome to chat about current affairs every day. I am Sydney (Wang Yuhe); I am Qin Peng.
Today’s focus: What is Xi Jinping avoiding when he refuses to attend the G20 summit in person? Taiwan allocated 7 billion U.S. dollars to promote the mass production of missiles and enhance the ability of cross-sea strikes.
Sydney: The pro-Beijing Hong Kong English-language “South China Morning Post” released an exclusive message on Monday (August 23) that Xi Jinping is considering participating in the October G20 summit via the Internet, which may lead to a summit between Xi Jinping and Biden Further postponement. The Chinese reason is the cause of the epidemic.
However, what is the real starting point? At the same time, there is news that Wang Yang may succeed Xi Jinping. Is this Xi Jinping’s defeat in Beidaihe, or is it a fog of public announcement?
Qin Peng: In response to Tsai Ing-wen’s oath to “make Taiwan stronger,” the Taiwan military will propose a special budget of up to NT$200 billion (US$7 billion), including the production of missiles with “source strike” capabilities. The CCP is in a hurry, “Global Times” choked the Taiwan authorities to “accelerate their self-destruction.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhesOoNSjUc
What is Xi Jinping hiding from the rumored refusal to attend the G20 summit in person?
Sydney: Since the new crown virus (also known as the CCP virus) ravaged the world in 2020, the CCP Politburo Standing Committee has never been abroad, and Xi Jinping himself has received Pakistani President Alvi who visited Beijing in March 2020. Nor has it received foreign leaders. The current record may continue to be maintained.
Today, the pro-Beijing South China Morning Post released an exclusive news that Xi Jinping is considering attending the G20 summit in Rome from October 30 to 31, rather than flying directly to the venue as in the past.
Xi Jinping is not going to face the G20 meeting or blowing up
Qin Peng: If Xi Jinping does not attend face-to-face this time, then the meeting between Xi Jinping and the current US President Biden, which has been rumored to the outside world, will also fail. Since there is no obvious time for the two sides to meet after October, this will break the record for the longest postponed meeting between the Chinese Communist Party leader and the US president since 1997.
Given that the two have no other obvious opportunity to meet after October, this is likely to be the first time since 1993 that the new US president and the top leader of the Chinese Communist Party have not held a summit.
Sydney: Earlier, in 2017, three months after Trump took office, Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan were invited to fly to Florida to meet President Trump at Sea Lake Manor.
After Obama won his second term, he met with Xi Jinping, who had recently succeeded at the time, in California, the United States, on June 8, 2013.
National leaders usually use the opportunity of multilateral summits to arrange bilateral meetings. For example, during the 2018 and 2019 G20 summits, Xi Jinping and Trump held summits between the leaders of the two countries and agreed to reach a truce on the Sino-US trade war.
So everyone thought that the Xixi meeting would happen during this G20 summit. But this time we saw that the South China Morning Post reported that Xi Jinping is not going to attend the G20 summit in person, and may only attend via the Internet, because of security considerations during the epidemic. However, this is usually a superficial reason, Qin Peng, how do you see the real reason for Xi Jinping’s improper attendance?
The time limit for investigating the origin of the virus is approaching
Qin Peng: I think the statement about the safety of the epidemic is a cover and an excuse. The real reason is still the fear of accountability for the global epidemic and international pressure. At the end of this month, Biden ordered the 90-day time limit for investigating the origin of the virus. There is no doubt that the world will gather the responsibility of the CCP in the following period of time, so other leaders will also pay attention. This will make Xi Jinping worry about his international image and increase tensions with Sino-US relations. Especially at present, there is no trend of relaxation in Sino-US relations. The CCP has also given up its illusions and simply scolded the United States and its allies for the “Seven Deadly Sins”, and it also denounced the United States as the eight first.
Sydney: Yes. Just two weeks ago, the CCP issued a report in the name of a think tank, approving the United States as the world’s number one country that failed to fight the epidemic, the world’s number one political scumbag country, and the world’s number one traceable terrorist country. This is obviously not a posture of preparing to reach a reconciliation with the United States.
At this time, for Xi Jinping to meet with the President of the United States and leaders of various countries, it is obvious that neither side can have a good mood and a good attitude. The South China Morning Post reported that in November 1993, then U.S. President Clinton and then CCP leader Jiang Zemin met during the Apec Summit in Seattle. This was the first meeting between Chinese and American leaders after the CCP’s Tiananmen Square crackdown on the student movement in 1989. . According to the Associated Press, this was a nonchalant meeting, and Clinton did not “laugh once” during the entire meeting.
Epidemic causes huge loss of life, Beijing fears accountability
And now, the global losses caused by the CCP are far more severe than the massacre of students in 1989. As of today, 212 million people have been infected and 4.44 million people have died. Among them, more than 37.8 million people have been infected in the United States and 628,000 have died.
Qin Peng: Yes. In the face of such a large loss of life and trillions of dollars in economic losses, once the US report is released, leaders of various countries will definitely have many accusations against Xi Jinping, especially since we see that the world has now formed a situation of encirclement and suppression of the CCP. The CCP must have felt the tremendous pressure, so it is better to hide farther.
Sydney: But the report also said that Beijing has not yet made a final decision. What does this mean?
Qin Peng: The CCP may also continue to observe to see if the U.S. report will come out on time. After coming out, the conclusion is, as well as the reaction of other countries, whether the Biden administration will directly accuse the CCP, etc., opportunism. Even the exclusive news of the South China Morning Post may also be used to test the direction of the wind.
It is rumored that Wang Yang may take over as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China
Sydney: Speaking of testing the direction of the wind, there is another news in the past two days that it was decided at the Beidaihe meeting of the Communist Party of China that Wang Yang, the current member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and chairman of the CPPCC, may take over as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China. The source said that this was released by an “unnamed” high-level CCP.
Later, outsiders analyzed that Wang Yang’s status has indeed changed recently. The first evidence is that Wang Yang represented the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China at the so-called 70th Anniversary Celebration of the Liberation of Tibet, while Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao, who previously represented the Communist Party in the 60th and 50th Anniversary Celebrations, attended the celebrations. At that time, he was the successor of the Chinese Communist Party. The second evidence is that on August 17, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a financial meeting to announce the so-called “common prosperity.” After Premier Li Keqiang, he was previously ranked after Wang Huning and Han Zheng, members of the Finance and Economics Committee.
What do you think of this matter?
Qin Peng: The people who spread the news said that Wang Yang’s succession was because Xi Jinping failed in his political struggle. I don’t think it is credible. At present, all powers of the party, government, military, police, special diplomacy, etc. are in the hands of Xi Jinping. No one in the CCP has the real strength to challenge Xi Jinping’s leadership.
Therefore, frankly speaking, I am not very interested in who is at this time and who will succeed, because in any case, Xi Jinping will not give up the leadership of the actual party leader. The people at the front desk are just puppets, and the people behind are all hanging curtains. In this regard, the CCP has accumulated a wealth of experience in controlling the general secretary of the front desk in the era of Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin. This is a blasphemy against the rule of law.
Pushing Wang Yang to the front desk can’t change the CCP’s internal affairs and foreign affairs
From a policy point of view, I think some analysts say that pushing Wang Yang to the forefront is a response to the international pressure from the United States, because Wang Yang has previously compared China and the United States to husband and wife, which has won praise from many Americans, and Wang Yang also has a reputation as a reformist. . This will help ease the tense Sino-US relations. However, under the background that Wang Yang has no real decision-making power and there are people behind to listen to politics, whoever is in the foreground cannot change the country’s economic advancement and the people’s retreat, political retreat to the Cultural Revolution, and the international CCP’s growing aggressiveness and ambitions. The general direction of intensified confrontation in the United States and others.
So, in this sense, I think it’s good for the Chief Accelerator to continue to be in power. At least it will let more and more people see it clearly, so that no illusions will arise again.
Sydney: According to analysis, there are too many variables whether Wang Yang can take over. The main reason is that the time to take over is too long. It will not become a reality until the 20th National Congress next year. In this process, many things will happen, including the internal struggle of the Chinese Communist Party. Intensify. The “Watch China” report said that Wang Yang’s succession message may even be just a signal flare, intended to appease or obscure the American vision. Because Xi Jinping has exhausted his literary attack and military threats in the Sino-US game, he cannot shrink back and show weakness. In particular, the United States has a clear dislike of Xi Jinping. The time limit for investigating the origin of the Wuhan pneumonia virus is approaching. The vague information of people confuses the observation of the outside world.
But Qin Peng, what do you think of the spread of this news? Who released the news?
Qin Peng: The main fighting factions within the CCP are still Xi, Jiang and some moderate factions. Some people call them reformists, but the latter do not have much real power, ability and courage. At this time, they openly challenge Xi Jinping, and Wang Yang is not a Jiang faction. Therefore, I think it is unlikely that the Jiang faction will spread this news.
I feel that this news is more like Xi’s letting people out, and it is more likely to blur the international line of sight.
Taiwan wants to accelerate the production of “source strike” missiles. Is the CCP in a hurry?
Sydney: In response to the CCP’s threat, the Taiwan military proposed a special budget of up to NT$200 billion (approximately US$7 billion) under Tsai Ing-wen’s decision to accelerate the production of missiles with “source strike” capabilities (to China). There are battleships, etc., which are expected to be sent to the Legislative Yuan for deliberation by the Taiwan Executive Yuan in early September.
Qin Peng: One Media, which first reported the news, said that Taiwan’s Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed a “source strike” combat capability. There are at least nine types of missiles, some of which are still under development, and some have begun small batch production.
The Global Times Criticizes: Taiwan’s Self-Destruction
Sydney: As soon as the news came out, the CCP’s mouthpiece, the Global Times, immediately published its editorial on Sunday (22nd) evening, with the headline “Taiwan authorities’ promotion of the missile program will only accelerate self-destruction.”
Another Chinese report wrote: “Experts: If you dare to leave the launch pad, you will face a devastating blow.”
Of course, Hu Xijin immediately posted on Weibo, saying, “If they (Taiwan) insist on going their own way, they will face the possibility of surgical military strikes from the mainland.”
Qin Peng, do you think that China’s continued scare remarks are just like what the “Liberty Times” said. Is the CCP in a hurry?
Qin Peng: Yes, under the current international situation, the CCP does not dare to use force against Taiwan, whether it is a direct occupation by force or what Hu Xijin calls “surgical military strikes.” Because as long as the force is used, it will inevitably be subject to military counterattacks and economic blockades from the United States and other retaliations.
Therefore, “Global Times” can only intimidate and vent dissatisfaction, and will not play other practical effects.
Sydney: Let’s take a look at the content of these CCP threat articles. The article in “The Ring Times” said that 200 billion is a huge number for Taiwan. “But wanting to use this plan to “deter” China is completely wishful thinking!” He also said that Taiwan The current overall military system is defensive in nature, and offensive deterrence can only be a “terrorist approach”, and it is impossible to win strategic initiative in the Taiwan Strait.
In fact, I think that some people may agree with what I said. It is good for Taiwan to be able to defend at the moment. We have to count on the United States, Japan, etc., and now they still want to attack?
Qin Peng, what do you think is the purpose for Taiwan to accelerate the production of missiles with “source strike” capabilities? How is it different from Hedgehog Island, the defense strategy?
Qin Peng: One Media said that after the rapid withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, “Taiwan tomorrow” immediately became a hot topic, and the focus of the KMT and DPP political offensive and defensive parties. This means that after the Afghan troop withdrawal crisis, many people think that the United States may give up its commitment and protection to Taiwan. In this case, Taiwan cannot completely rely on the United States. You must be strong enough to protect yourself.
“Source Strike” has the ability to proactively attack
What does “source strike” mean? The difference from the hedgehog strategy is the ability to strike across the sea against the CCP’s military and important civilian targets. The Hedgehog Island strategy is mainly passive defense. If you don’t hit me, I won’t provoke you. If the CCP sends warships and military aircraft to cross the sea to fight, Hedgehog can form a defensive capability on the strait and the island, so that the CCP can’t swallow it.
The hedgehog strategy has advantages and disadvantages, because the CCP wants to use force against Taiwan. In addition to sending military aircraft and warships to attack Taiwan’s main island, it may also launch missiles against Taiwan from a long distance. For example, the CCP has just recently tested two Dongfeng-16 series missiles. This missile has a range of about 800-1500 kilometers. It fills the gap between the Dongfeng-15 tactical ballistic missile and the Dongfeng-21 medium-range ballistic missile. It can carry Including ground penetrating bombs, they may pose a threat to Taiwan’s Yuanshan Command Post.
Then, if Taiwan wants to win the war, completely passive defense is not enough. It should be more active. Then launching an offensive when the enemy has an unstable foothold, or destroying the rear command post, or destroying missiles or airfields are more active and effective strategies. This is now Taiwan’s goal of building “source strike” capabilities and speeding up the mass production of missiles.
We can also see from the range of the missiles under development. The Taiwan Strait is narrow in the north and wide in the south, with a width of about 200 kilometers in the north; and a width of about 410 kilometers in the south, with an average width of 180 kilometers. The narrowest point is between Baisha Cape in Guanyin District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan Island and Haitan Island in Pingtan, Fujian, about 130 kilometers away.
The 9 types of missiles have a range of more than 1,000 kilometers. There are at least 4 types of missiles under development, such as hypersonic missiles, Yunfeng missiles, extended-range Xionger E, halberd missiles, and extended-range bow III.
With a range of 400 to 600 kilometers, there are the Yuji E, the extended-range Tiangong II B, and the air-launched Yugo III missiles under development. In addition, the Wanjian bullet also has a range of more than 250 kilometers to 400 kilometers.
Once mass-produced, Taiwan will have long-range combat capability, fending off enemies outside the country. This is also the reason why the CCP went into a rage and threatened again.
For example, within a few dozen hours of the beginning of the war, Taiwan must vigorously consume the CCP’s force
Sydney: The “Global Times” also said that Taiwan is already China’s “cage bird” and “fish in the net”, and Taiwan is small, even if it has missiles, it can only be deployed at a few bases. “The denser they are, the more suitable the PLA. When the war broke out, they used the first round of saturated strikes to destroy them all, causing the Taiwan military’s combat power and resistance to quickly collapse at the same time.”
Can this kind of source-strike capability building be effective when confronted by the CCP?
Qin Peng: It has a great effect. The CCP and Taiwan are actually not one-sided advantages, but each has its own advantages and disadvantages. The CCP’s current advantages are its strong economic strength, long range of missiles, a large number of missiles, and a large number of aircraft. Taiwan’s advantages include chip bases and many international allies. In order not to be stuck by the CCP, it has to help Taiwan internationally.
In order for the CCP to successfully occupy Taiwan, it is actually mainly relying on surprise attacks to create established facts and force the international community to accept the status quo. This time Afghanistan caused the United States and others to be passive. Of course, the internal reason was that the Biden administration failed to withdraw its troops conditionally, and the procedures were inverted and chaotic. The most important external reason was that the Afghan government forces did not almost resist and were defeated like a mountain for a few days. Time is broken, and the outside world can’t help.
Therefore, for Taiwan, how to strengthen its own capabilities, especially within dozens of hours of the beginning of the war, effectively consume the CCP’s force so that the CCP cannot swallow it all at once, and delay time becomes very important.
After the missile is mass-produced, some maneuvering measures will be taken, and coastal defense will be strengthened at the same time, so that this goal can be achieved.
Sydney: The Global Times wrote that the CCP will intensively track the development of Taiwan’s military technology in the future. For aggressive preparations, it is necessary for the mainland to categorically ask them to terminate the activity within a time limit and issue an ultimatum.”
Qin Peng: This sentence is actually a helpless self-justification of the CCP.
In Taiwan, whether it is the hedgehog strategy or the “source-strike” capability building, the fundamental goal remains the same. It is defense. It is not the “extreme aggressive preparation” that the Global Times now refers to. The CCP is well aware of this. Therefore, this is a step for the CCP to find itself to step down.
The United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy of uniting allies has taken shape
Sydney: But in fact, no matter how the CCP clamors, there is no way to ignore the containment of various countries. As we mentioned before, the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States to unite its allies has taken shape, and now the focus of the US military has shifted from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, especially the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
On August 20, the US Pacific Fleet announced that the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth (R08) and the US Army’s USS amphibious assault ship (LHA 6) were conducting exercises in the Philippine Sea.
The US military stated that it would work with allies to build a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region in the Indo-Pacific region.
Qin Peng: This time point just replaced the US aircraft carrier’s vacuum period in the Western Pacific. In addition, the F-35B stealth fighters carried by the two sides were interoperable. The F-35B’s built-in magazine was also loaded with precision-guided bombs during the exercise. , Analysis believes that the exercise is of practical value to defend the Taiwan Strait.
Sydney: On the 17th, the new US Secretary of the Air Force Frank. In an interview, Frank Kendell stated that the goal of the US Air Force is to create advanced technology that “fears China (the Communist Party).” Among them, he mentioned the upgraded F-35 stealth fighter, B-21 stealth bomber, etc. , And other series of confidential plans that have not yet been announced.
The Chinese Communist Party media also published some articles trying to belittle the combat power of British aircraft carriers, etc., but in fact, there are still concerns between the lines. This situation, the situation of the United States and its allies, should be a headache for the CCP.
Moreover, this Anglo-American exercise is only part of the “Large-scale Global Exercise 2021” (LSGE21). The large-scale exercise also includes Australian and Japanese forces. The simulation is to seize and control the western Pacific islands.
Back to the topic, under the current international situation, that is, with the United States, Japan and other countries showing firm defense against Taiwan, Taiwan is now proposing this “source strike” missile. Is there any connection?
Qin Peng: This is inside and outside the island, uniting against the CCP. However, the Taiwan government is now very clear that it cannot rely entirely on the outside world, so it must strengthen itself. The current approach is very right.
Xi Jinping is afraid of two things
Sydney: However, with regard to Beijing’s attack on Taiwan, Zhang Jiadun, an expert on China issues, said in an interview with the “American Thought Leader” program that the CCP would not initiate a war for Taiwan. Because Xi Jinping is afraid of two things. First, in order for the CCP to occupy Taiwan, Xi Jinping must allow a general to control all or most of the CCP’s armed forces. Xi Jinping is unwilling to do so.
Second, Xi Jinping knows that even if it succeeds in occupying Taiwan, the price is terrible. The number one goal of the CCP is not to seize Taiwan, but to maintain the power of the Communist Party. Xi Jinping will not risk the collapse of the Communist Party because of this heavy price.
Qin Peng: Yes. The fundamental starting point of all the policies of the CCP is to maintain the rule of the CCP. The so-called “unification of the motherland” is nothing more than a lie to the outside and a rhetoric to deceive the domestic people. The CCP sold more than three million square kilometers of land after its establishment. It does not care about territorial integrity. Taiwan is not occupied by aliens. It is unreasonable to fight Taiwan. The starting point is to kidnap the Chinese people with patriotism to strengthen itself. rule.
However, if the CCP evaluates the international environment and domestic situation and finds that it is not good for the CCP’s own rule, it will definitely give up or postpone it to avoid its collapse.
Production Team of “Qin Peng Live”
Editor in charge: Li Hao #
.
