Bitcoin Price Expected to Rise Amidst Macroeconomic Factors

Geoff Kendrick, head of FX and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes the recent 50bp rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will lead to continued bullish momentum in Bitcoin and digital asset markets.

According to recent analysis, Kendrick suggests that macroeconomic factors will drive up digital asset prices regardless of the results of the US presidential election in November. Kendrick emphasized that Bitcoin and other digital assets have been strong since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates.

“Digital assets have been the top performers for the first time in a while since the FOMC meeting,” Kendrick said in an email. He attributed the positive performance to macroeconomic factors that are starting to outweigh election-related uncertainty.

Kendrick argued that the U.S. presidential election has less of an impact on bitcoin prices than in the past. “The U.S. presidential election is important, but macroeconomic factors are starting to take over,” he said. He is watching the difference between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields as an indicator of favorable market conditions for digital assets.

A key indicator Kendrick is monitoring is the spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Since July 2022, the spread has been negative, which the market interpreted as a sign that a recession was imminent. However, since late August, the spread has started to turn positive again.

Kendrick also noted that increased spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investment could support Bitcoin prices in the near future. “We should be watching to see if spot Bitcoin ETF inflows pick up again in October,” he added.

While these predictions depend on continued positive macroeconomic factors, Kendrick reaffirmed his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach new highs by the end of the year, targeting $125,000 if Donald Trump wins and $75,000 if Kamala Harris wins.