Red Alert: North Korean Troops Deploy to Russia – A Game-Changer in the Ukraine War
The United States says about 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed in Russia, a move that NATO’s secretary-general called a “major escalation” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Pentagon said on Monday it was “increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers to fight in Kursk” – Kursk is Russia’s border area with Ukraine and was invaded by Ukrainian forces in August this year.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said, “The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea poses a threat to the security of the Indo-Pacific as well as the Euro-Atlantic.”
Since Russia launched a special military operation against the Eastern European country in February 2022, Ukraine has been fighting Russian troops with the support of Western weapons. Russia has since occupied parts of eastern and southern Ukraine and has made some military advances in recent months.
So, what impact will the possible stationing of North Korean troops in Russia have on the war in Ukraine?
What do we know about North Korea’s deployments?
The Pentagon and NATO are not the first to confirm that North Korean troops are stationed in Russia. Days earlier, Ukrainian intelligence said it had documented the presence of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.
Three weeks ago, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said it was “highly likely” that six North Korean military officers had been killed in an attack by Ukrainian troops near Donetsk in the east of the country on October 3.
On October 18, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service stated that Russian ships transferred 1,500 North Korean soldiers to Russia in the second week of October.
On October 13, Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed in a video speech that North Korea had mobilized troops to Russia. In the same video, he also urged his Western allies to lift restrictions that prevent Ukraine from using long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.
Ukraine, South Korea and the United States have yet to provide any evidence to support their claims about North Korea’s military deployments. However, some experts told Al Jazeera reporters earlier that this possibility cannot be ruled out because Russia and North Korea have been carrying out military cooperation during the war that has lasted for nearly three years.
The Kremlin claimed that the accusations of deploying North Korean soldiers on the battlefield were false news, but news of the deployment of soldiers by Russia and North Korea in June this year has made headlines around the world after Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense agreement in June this year – at that time, Vladimir Putin for the first time in 24 years. A state visit to the isolated country.
The text of the agreement has not yet been released, but it includes a mutual assistance clause calling on both countries to provide military assistance to one of the countries if it is attacked.
The agreement has raised concerns among U.S. allies in East Asia, South Korea and Japan. Technically, North and South Korea are still at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice rather than a peace treaty. There are currently more than 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan, and nearly 25,000 U.S. troops are deployed in South Korea.
It is believed that Russia could use Ukraine’s incursion into its Kursk region to invoke the mutual assistance provisions of the deal.
Civilian evacuation: Eastern Ukraine front in danger (Al Jazeera)
What do Russia and North Korea say?
Russia has previously denied the presence of North Korean troops on its territory.
“This appears to be another piece of fake news,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
However, during last Thursday’s BRICS summit, a reporter asked Russian President Vladimir Putin about satellite images showing North Korean troops stationed in Russia. In response, Putin replied: “Satellite images are a very serious matter. If images exist, then they must reflect some facts.”
North Korea has not publicly responded to whether its troops are stationed in Russia.
The United States, South Korea and Ukraine have also accused North Korea of transferring weapons to Russia, but North Korea and Russia deny the claims.
According to Russian media reports, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui arrived in Russia on Tuesday. It is unclear what Choi Shan Hui’s agenda is for this trip.
If this deployment is confirmed, how will it affect the war in Ukraine?
If the fact that North Korean troops are stationed in Russia is officially confirmed, North Korea will become the first country to officially send soldiers to the Russian-Ukrainian front line.
So far, only Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have participated in the war. Mercenaries from all over the world, especially from South Asian countries, have also joined the ranks of the fighting parties, but they are not sent by the governments of the countries where they are located.
Edward Howell, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera, “The fact is that North Korea is now an official participant in the war in Ukraine, and not just supporting Russia by providing artillery to avoid direct participation in the conflict.”
However, he believes that this may not change Russia’s overall strategy in this war.
“Especially given that the North Koreans appear to be organizing their own military camps and having their own translators,” Howell noted. It should be noted that Howell’s research focuses on the politics and international relations of North Korea, the Korean Peninsula and East Asia.
During a war of attrition, the deployment of North Korean troops could alter the balance on the battlefield. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army, as of October 1 this year, 654,430 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured. Russia has not announced any casualty figures, but Russian media reported that the death toll on the Russian side has exceeded 71,000 soldiers.
While Ukraine has mandatory conscription, it seems easier for Russians to evade it. Therefore, North Korean troops could provide numerical strength to the Kremlin’s war effort.
These developments in Russia come against the backdrop of rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. On October 15 this year, North Korea blew up the road connecting North Korea and South Korea, further intensifying tensions on the Korean peninsula.
Just a few days ago, North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that North Korea discovered some drones over Pyongyang and accused South Korea of sending these drones.
“The concern is, in return for North Korea sending troops, will Russia provide North Korea with any military technology that North Korea could use to provoke South Korea?” Howell said.
North Korea blows up road connecting North and South Korea (Al Jazeera)Will the West allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia?
Putin warned the West not to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia. Putin hinted at retaliatory action, raising fears of a major escalation in the war.
At a press conference on Monday, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singer was asked by reporters: Are there restrictions on weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine being used against North Korean soldiers?
Singer said no, adding that North Korean forces “are a common belligerent in the war, so they are fighting on these fronts while the Ukrainians are defending their sovereign territory and pushing the Russians back.”
“We have made a commitment to Ukraine that we will continue to support them at all costs,” Singh said.
“As more actors enter the conflict, the need to undermine Russian tactics becomes increasingly urgent, so the likelihood that Western countries will lift restrictions on long-range missiles remains high,” Howell noted. “
How important are long-range missiles in the war in Ukraine?