Rising China, Falling America: A Look at Economic Predictions and Global Power Shifts

Western experts used models to calculate the economic development data of China and the United States in the next few decades and presented the prediction that “China will never surpass the United States.” Is China sinking or America rising? This is a good question.

US monetary policy continues to struggle. AP photos

After a quarter of a century, “China is on the verge of collapse” has ended – Zhang Jiadun judged that China would last for five years at most, and later greatly predicted the collapse of China in 2016 to 2017 – the new crown pandemic survived, the “Wall Street Journal” last year In July, he said that China would follow Japan and enter 10 or even 20 years of economic decline. “There is any hope that the post-epidemic reopening leading to a return to rapid economic growth in a shattered China.” Then ask yourself: “Is China stuck in a middle-income trap, made worse by aging before it gets rich? Or is it once the epidemic happens? When the future chaos subsides , can an educated and innovative population put their worries behind them and remove the fog of the property market?” As a result, China’s prospects are once. again seen through the filter of foreign analysts.

“Hua Ri” is the same as Zhang Jiadun. China has three “terminal diseases”: 1. Lack of political openness and autocratic dictatorship stifle free innovation and destroy the ability to correct the market’s equilibrium errors; 2. China’s economy is driven by exports, and the external environment directly affects prosperity and prosperity; 3. Local governments and private enterprises are heavily in debt and difficult to sustain.

Germany’s “Le Monde” reported that the GDP difference between the US and China is now 10 trillion US dollars, which is not a small number. China has been growing rapidly in the past. Originally, it was believed that China would catch up with the United States in 2028, but through calculation models it was concluded that Conclusion: China must be under extremely favorable conditions before China can hope to catch up with the United States. “For example, if China’s inflation continues unchanged in the next few decades, China will have a growth rate that is at least twice as much as the United States. However, it must be at least Only in 2057 , that is, 30 years later, China will catch up with the United States. ” But more and more people believe that “this will never happen.”

It doesn’t matter when China surpasses the United States. The West no longer dares to write predictions like “the fall of China” and “China will be lost” on the wall. However, “China’s negative factors” have added three points: China’s real estate bubble and China’s population decline Consumption is weak and youth unemployment is high. The relevant causes are explained by China’s three major “terminal diseases”. No matter how they talk about China, commentators ignore an important related factor: the United States.

The Global Times quoted an Australian analysis: “China has become the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power parity. Trump’s promotion of the ‘America First’ policy is tantamount to declaring that the United States has lost the trade competition. “What does this mean? Trump and Biden cannot stop China’s innovation-driven technological economic growth, China will be able to achieve “Made in China 2025” as planned. If so, it is expected to surpass the United States, which lacks incentive.

The US cannot defeat China with all its might. “China has set an example for the countries of the Global South, showing that international rules and order do not need a regulator. Countries can act independently and still achieve success. Poor countries are becoming more and more successful. more and more confident in trade.” now subject to the West and Japan. They now have another industrialized country (China) as a sales target, which will not dictate to them or interfere in their internal affairs. Many countries, such as the BRICS, are getting rid of US control over their economy.” In other words, US leadership is disappearing.

The Australian media has not predicted when the above situation will be realized, but I can borrow the words of Mr. Roach from Morgan Stanley and put it succinctly: “It pains me to say that the United States is finished.” The reason? It happens that there are three points: the political contradictions in the United States are tearing the society apart; the US manufacturing industry has lost its edge and it is difficult to revive local production; and finally, the US debt is the largest on the planet and the largest in history, which cannot be solved at all.

Key point: When the US returns to reality and seeks mutual benefit and win-win results with the most powerful country, that’s when Hong Kong will regain its prosperity. Addendum: It won’t be long, it will be seen in everyone’s lifetime.

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After careful consideration and less than a week later, Blinken used American slang to counter Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s “Adou” theory. He spoke animatedly and without hesitation. Unfortunately, the image of the United States has not been greatly reduced, but it has become beyond recognition, and even the world has become chaotic.

Blinken is here. AP photos

As the top diplomat of a great power, US Secretary of State Blinken participated in the Munich Security Council discussion. Answering the host’s question about “the tension between the US and China leads to more divisions,” he quoted American slang saying that in the international system, “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu”. What is the meaning? Translated into Chinese, the closest thing is the sentence from “Historical Records: Chronicles of Xiang Yu”, “People are swordsmen, and I am the fish.” The scene is “Hongmen Banquet”, and the main character happens to be. Liu Bei, the father of “Adou” At that time, Xiang Yu forced him to Come out to “speak the numbers” and hold a feast to demand the submission of the Kingdom of Shu. This is exactly what Blinken said in the beautiful slang : “If you have the strength, come to the table and eat together. If you have no strength and will not compromise, I will take you. “The kitchen kills everything and adds food to it.” Liu Bei did not want to be put on the menu on the spot, so he tried to escape. General Fan Kuai was angry and complained of barbarism lord of Chu, and laments that he allowed mermaids to eat him.

Blinken’s words were told to us deliberately, and they make sense. Otherwise, the Global Times would not have taken him seriously. He responded in an editorial, saying that Blinken’s words “reveal the worldview of the jungle and reveal the merciless nature.” and cooling”. Before finishing what he wanted to say, the article focused on drawing attention to the fact that the United States no longer pretends to be pretentious. It does not talk about Western civilization, democracy, freedom, equality and respect for the national sovereignty of each country. it expresses “power and status rather than rules and morality.” , the law of the jungle where the law is the criterion.” In fact, the United States has always been so bad, saying one thing is beautiful but doing another cruel thing: “More than 200 years ago, (the United States) killed and occupied the land of the Indians who had lived here for generations in North America This kind of thinking is reflected in reality. “The embodiment of”; this is not all, ” Ring Time” revealed the entire West at once: “The First World War was triggered by the old European empires was like this, and the Cold War was also like this to some extent.”

What is the current situation today?” With the development of political civilization and the development of economic globalization,” do you still want the world to follow the US mentality of “cut throat with sword or make flesh with your own flesh”? In the competition between China and the United States, one must choose one of the two. Do you take sides? For example, if the US prevents China from taking the lead in 5G mobile communication technology, the US will help the world block Huawei and ZTE. If the US cannot compete with Chinese electric vehicles, it will ordered Japan, South Korea, and Europe to build trade barriers to stop BYD and other domestically produced vehicles. Export brand…

How much energy does the United States have today to “take advantage of” the world? To be honest, it seems that it is out of will, so the United States can no longer worry about its status as a leading country and an example of the world. It leaves the splendid palace “universal value” and built for a century and went. to Liangshan to be a “hero”.

Suddenly, people are reminded of the cultural relics of Sanxingdui that were revealed in Sichuan. The bronze ones with “majestic, fierce and terrifying” shapes were deliberately, representing the civilization of the ancient slave class system. The rulers no longer speak of kindness, justice, and harmony, but seek harmony only The world looks to its rulers with fear. Blinken threatens the whole world, including China Is it a cultural relic of Sanxingdui that has traveled through time? According to the current assumptions of quantum mechanics, it is possible, because if the phenomenon of the quantum connection is established, there will be a “parallel universe” here, and Blinken came through time, smile.

Postscript: Did I mistake Liu Bei for Liu Bang? Yes, but no, maybe Liu Bei went to the “parallel universe” to fight between Chu and Han, another smile. If there is anything misleading, it is just a coincidence!

#pains #America