NESDB reveals that Thai household debt numbers continue to surge The latest data for the third quarter of 2023 continued to expand by an additional 3.3%, with a total value of 16.2 trillion baht, with a household debt to GDP ratio of 90.9%, with households delay creating debt in almost all types of loans. With the exception of personal loans It is recommended to keep an eye on bad debts in automotive loans which continue to rise, with car repossessions rising to 25,000-30,000 cars a month.
Mr Danucha Pitchayanan, Secretary General of the Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB), reports on the situation of Thai society in the 4th quarter and an overall picture of 2023. Important issues related to household debt Latest data for the 3rd quarter of 2023 It was found that Thai household debt totaled 16.2 trillion baht, expanding 3.3% but slowing from the same quarter last year. with the ratio of household debt to GDP. It was 90.9%, stable from the previous quarter.
At the same time, it was found that households hesitated before going into debt in almost every type of loan except personal loans. Real estate loans expanded 4.6%, slowing slightly from 4.9% in the previous quarter. Automotive loans expanded 0.2%, decreasing from 1.0% in the previous quarter. An important factor comes from the strictness of lending by financial institutions.
As for loans for other personal use purposes growth slowed from 5.6% in the previous quarter to 5.4% due to a slowdown in credit card loans. while personal loans Expanded continuously from 3.2% in the previous quarter to 3.5%, reflecting the liquidity needs of some groups of households, such as those whose income has not yet recovered, who have a crisis and need to use the money to pay debts, or Credit. refinance card
In terms of credit quality, all types of loans were found to have deteriorated, with the debt ratio of NPLs worth 152 billion baht, expanding 7.9% from 2.7% in the previous quarter. and accounted for 2.79% of total loans, increasing from 2.71% in the previous quarter, with housing loans and credit cards The ratio of bad debts to total loans was 3.24% and 3.34%, respectively, increasing from the previous quarter. The same goes for car loans. That proportion increased from 2.05% from the previous quarter to 2.10%.
In terms of 1-3 month outstanding debts (SMLs), the overall ratio of SMLs to total loans was found to have remained stable at 6.7%, but SMLs debt for automotive loans remained high and continued to increase. The alleged automotive debt quality situation is according to the Federation of Thai Industries car seizure data in 2023, which has increased to 25,000-30,000 cars per month, an increase from 2022 when 20,000 cars were seized per month.
However, there are issues that need to be emphasized from now on. is to follow up on enforcing responsible and fair lending guidelines to solve household debt problems. Willing to follow up on receiving help from debtors. Especially those who are chronically in debt.
It is also necessary to keep an eye on Continuing to accelerate personal loans under supervision That reflects the increasing lack of liquidity among households. Especially supervised personal loans with vehicle registration as collateral, which were found in the third quarter to have expanded as high as 40.2% because they are easy and quick to approve loans. But the interest is higher than other types of loans.
and it must pursue solving problems with debt outside the system Especially the ability to mediate informal debt. Currently, the number of people registered to join the Ministry of Interior’s solution to the problem of informal debt has been found to be more than 143,000, with a total debt of 10,261 million baht, and it may be necessary to relax the lending conditions. specialized financial institutions of the relevant government. Reducing barriers to lending to groups of debtors outside the system together with continuous monitoring of the ability to repay debts.
Including the need to increase opportunities to get credit. Especially the self-employed group with uncertain income. This is because they are a risky group that could create debt outside the system in the future.
As for the proposal to introduce the LTV measure to stimulate the real estate market, it is considered two sides of the same coin. It must be seen that such measures are used. It will cause additional debt. And will it lead to more bad debts? Although it is a tool to stimulate the real estate market Must come and see in detail. To begin with, I want to emphasize that people should think before going into debt. and responsible borrowing At the moment, we are trying to reduce our debt first. It may be necessary to look at the appropriate time for reintroducing the LTV measure.
Regarding the labor situation in the 4th quarter, employment was found to be improving. Unemployment fell or had an unemployment rate of 0.81%, while the overall unemployment rate for the year was 0.98% The total number of people in work was 40.3 million, an increase of 1.7% from the same period last year, with the sector agricultural is expanding. 1.0% Non-agricultural employment expanded by 2.0%, mainly in hotels and restaurants, with the highest expansion of 8% due to an increase in foreign tourists. But what needs to be watched is that employment in the manufacturing sector has shrunk by 2.3% as a result of a slowdown in the production of industrial products and a slowdown in exports.
Meanwhile, wages for private sector workers were 14,095 baht per person per month, an increase of 0.9%, while the general wage was 15,382 baht per person per month, a decrease of 0.2% For the overall picture in 2023, it was found that the employment rate was 98.68. The overall unemployment % is at 0.98%, on par with 2019 (before COVID-19) The issue to watch is Progress in restructuring the manufacturing industry to be an industry for the future. From the beginning, it was still a production that focused on unskilled labor at a share as high as 43.6%, increasing from 26.2% in 2017.
Including the problem of labor shortages in the Vocational Certificate and Vocational Certificate systems, developing labor skills to support the use of AI, which is an important tool in doing business today. Therefore, the NESDB sees if it wants to increase’ r rate of pay in employment The government sector must have measures in place to help increase the capabilities of workers. Increasing the skills of workers in order to receive a higher salary After all, the government’s access to such measures has not been very decisive in the past.
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