European space security officials are increasingly concerned about aggressive surveillance activities conducted by Russia and, to a lesser extent, China, targeting satellites critical to both civilian and military infrastructure. The warnings, issued by Germany and the United Kingdom, highlight a growing trend of “stalking, jamming, and interfering” with orbital assets, raising fears of potential disruption to communications, navigation, and intelligence gathering.
The concerns aren’t new, with the United States and France having warned over a decade ago about potential Russian satellite spying. However, recent observations indicate a significant escalation in these activities. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius publicly addressed the threat in September , stating, “Russia’s actions, especially in space, pose a fundamental threat to us all – a threat People can no longer ignore.” This sentiment was echoed by the UK’s space command, which reported experiencing jamming and tracking of its satellites on a “weekly basis.”
Specifically, Russian reconnaissance satellites, identified as Luch-1 and Luch-2, have been observed conducting “suspicious maneuvers” near European satellites. These include prolonged proximity to Intelsat spacecraft, which provide essential services to governments, militaries, and commercial entities across Europe and the United States. According to Michael Traut, head of the German military space command, these satellites are suspected of conducting “signal intelligence activity.”
The nature of this intelligence gathering focuses on intercepting unencrypted data transmissions. European intelligence officials believe the Luch satellites are attempting to intercept data streams sent between ground stations and satellites. A significant vulnerability lies in the fact that many European satellites, launched years ago, lack advanced onboard computers and encryption capabilities, leaving their communications exposed. This makes them particularly susceptible to interference or even potential manipulation.
While European officials currently assess that the Russian satellites do not possess the capability to directly disrupt or destroy other satellites, the data collected could provide valuable insights into how to achieve such outcomes, both from space and from ground-based operations. Traut indicated that the Luch satellites are likely capturing “command links” – the communication channels used to adjust satellite orbits.
Analysts suggest that with this information, Russia could potentially mimic ground operators and send false commands to satellites, subtly altering their trajectories. These minor adjustments could be used to destabilize satellites, forcing them out of orbit or rendering them unusable. The potential consequences range from the loss of critical communication links to the disruption of military operations and civilian navigation systems.
The targeting of communication satellites carries significant risks. Disrupting these systems could impact satellite imagery, telecommunications, and broadband internet access. Interference with navigation and positioning systems could also affect military operations and civil aviation. The situation is further complicated by increased cooperation between Russia and China, with Ukrainian officials reporting that Beijing is conducting satellite reconnaissance of Ukrainian territory on behalf of Moscow.
Detecting satellites in space is relatively straightforward, but understanding their intent is far more challenging. Security agencies track the position and movement of foreign satellites to infer their purpose. The recent activities of the Luch-1 and Luch-2 satellites, however, suggest a deliberate and escalating effort to gather intelligence and potentially develop capabilities to disrupt or degrade Western space assets. The warnings from Germany and the United Kingdom underscore the growing recognition that space is becoming an increasingly contested domain, with significant implications for national security and global stability.
The situation is evolving rapidly, and European officials are likely to continue monitoring Russian and Chinese space activities closely. The lack of encryption on older satellites remains a critical vulnerability, and efforts to upgrade these systems and enhance space situational awareness are likely to be prioritized in the coming months. The potential for escalation in space, coupled with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, presents a complex and challenging security landscape.
