Samsung Battles Apple for Foldable Smartphone Market Dominance

Apple is set to enter the foldable smartphone market in 2026, capturing an estimated 25 percent of global shipments in its first year and immediately claiming the number two spot behind Samsung, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Foldable Smartphone Market Forecast.

The upcoming foldable iPhone will ship up to 6 million units in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research. That volume arrives despite a short and supply-constrained launch window, as production limits rather than consumer demand cap initial availability.

Global Foldable Market Forecast and Manufacturer Standings

Samsung maintains its lead in the category, holding 38 percent of global foldable shipments projected for 2026, according to Counterpoint’s OEM breakdown. Huawei trails closely behind Apple at 22 percent of the market. The remaining 15 percent of shipments are split among Motorola, Honor, and smaller manufacturers.

Global foldable shipments are on track to cross 100 million cumulative units by the end of 2026, marking eight years since the category debuted in 2019. Counterpoint Research projects that the next 100 million shipments will arrive in roughly three years. Growth is expected to accelerate sharply in 2027 with a 37 percent year-over-year increase, driven by a full year of Apple shipments alongside next-generation devices from Samsung and Huawei, including the Galaxy Z Fold8 and Pura X Max. Apple’s shipments are projected to more than double that year, lifting its market share to 40 percent.

Despite this acceleration, foldables remain a minor segment of the broader mobile industry, accounting for roughly 2 percent of global smartphone shipments. Prices stay roughly three times higher than standard slab phones, creating a barrier to mass adoption that analysts note is closing slowly.

Competitive Landscape and Expansion of Book-Type Designs

Beyond Samsung, Apple, and Huawei, the hardware field is expanding as more brands introduce competing foldables. Xiaomi is preparing its Xiaomi 18 Fold, while Motorola, Honor, Google, vivo, and OPPO continue developing new hardware, focusing heavily on wider book-type designs similar to flagships from Samsung and Huawei.

Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak noted that market conditions support further expansion, stating there is room for the category to grow well beyond current volumes as OEMs introduce new designs and form factors.

Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee characterized Apple’s initial manufacturing ramp as what would be a very strong start despite constrained initial supplies. According to market analysts, long-term expansion will depend on whether manufacturers can deliver user experiences distinct enough to attract buyers outside the category’s early adopters.