Hello, readers interested in the information technology (IT) market. Today is Samsung Electronics 3 positive signs for HBM businessI am trying to summarize about this.
Let’s keep the introduction short and get straight to the point with one of the most popular photos in the semiconductor industry this week. [강해령의 하이엔드 테크] Let’s leave.
◇ “Jensen’s approval.”
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Hwang’s handwritten signature and afterwords on Samsung Electronics’ 12-layer HBM3E. Photo source: Han Jin-man, Vice President of Samsung Electronics SNS
On the 21st (local time). Nvidia CEO Jensen Hwang’s writing turned the domestic semiconductor industry upside down. “Jensen was approved.”
He visited the Samsung Electronics booth at NVIDIA’s biggest developer conference ‘GTC 2024’ and left this message along with a handwritten signature on the 12-layer 5th generation HBM (HBM3E). Some said that Jensen’s visit and signature would be a message of ‘respect’ to Samsung Electronics, a partner company that sponsored GTC 2024 on a large scale.
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Every word and action of a CEO who moves a market capitalization of $2 trillion (about 2,700 trillion won) can send a huge message to the market.
Still, one word from the CEO, or head of the world’s largest semiconductor company that dominates an era, carries a different weight. There are many cases where even one movement, voice or record carries a big message. ‘Approval’, without considering the various semiconductor products such as CXL and various memory modules on display at the Samsung booth. Above HBM3E step 12, select the word ‘Approved’ The general consensus is that leaving a message really means a lot. In addition, in response to a question about Samsung HBM received at the press conference the day before, he said, “We are testing Samsung Electronics’ HBM and we have high expectations.”
Coincidentally, what about the movement that Jensen Huang showed? It also matched the expectations I had for Samsung Electronics that I had heard about while covering the story for several months.
Samsung Electronics is betting its life and death on the 12-layer HBM3E project, which announced the completion of development last month. Looking at the 12-layer HBM3E unveiled last month, the thickness of the non-conductive adhesive film (NCF), which acts as an adhesive between chips, has been reduced to 7 micrometers (㎛) to meet the overall thickness standard of 720 ㎛. They also expressed confidence in NCF’s performance in reducing pump characteristics and defects, as well as through silicon electrode (TSV) technology.
All the best with this 12-speed HBM3E project. The higher the level, like level 12, level 16, etc., the more advantageous the process they decide to push.also have an opinion.
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The TC-NCF bonding method is a method where heat and pressure are applied to join DRAM for HBM. Samsung’s reasoning is that even when heat is applied, the ‘warpage’ phenomenon, which is the biggest problem with high defect HBM, can be reduced because the DRAM is ironed tightly, as if ironing This means that the bending phenomenon caused by heat is much better than the MR-MUF process, which combines DRAMs by applying heat from different directions, introduced by rival SK Hynix starting with HBM2E. It is understood that Samsung has already gained a lot of knowledge and confidence from the experience of producing and introducing 12-layer products belonging to the multi-layer group in the 4th generation HBM (HBM3) products, which started mass production with TC. – Last year’s NCF technology.
It will still take at least the next year for the 12-speed HBM3E to be seriously applied. In addition, NVIDIA GPU, which will seriously implement 8-layer HBM3E, will be released by the end of this year at the earliest. Even if it is a bit later than its competitors, there is still time for Samsung to make up for it.
Jensen Huang’s 12-speed HBM3E “Approved” this year, building on confidence in the TC-NCF process announced at the start of the year Will something ‘real’ meet market expectations? We will have to watch.
◇ AMD GPU is also equipped with Samsung HBM3
The market is also sending signals that Samsung Electronics’ HBM business is gaining momentum. It’s worth looking at the changes in data from Trend Force, the most referenced market research company in the industry. First of all, market share.
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Data source = Trend Force
Looking at last year’s HBM market share forecast published by Trend Force in June last year and the market share forecast published two months later in August, a slight change can be detected. If HBM Samsung Electronics’ 2023 market share forecast at the time was 38%, it was adjusted to 46-49% in August, on par with SK Hynix, and 47-49% this year. It increased by about 10% points.
Trend Force is interpreted as looking at the influence of GPU or AI semiconductor companies other than NVIDIA. Of course, NVIDIA’s power in the AI semiconductor industry is huge. It is known to occupy between 50% and 70% of the global AI chip market.
However, Jensen Huang’s AI chip rivals include Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger and AMD CEO Lisa Su. The world’s largest cloud service providers (CSPs), including Google, Meta, Microsoft (MS), and OpenAI, are carefully developing their own AI chips. AI chip startups like TenStorrent and Grok also have big ambitions for the technology. Of course, they cannot be uninterested in HBM, and the so-called ‘sole vendor’ focusing on one company is a cause for concern for chip designers. We have no choice but to consider the cooperation relations with Samsung, and this leads to the conclusion that the customers of the HBM market are more diverse than expected.
In fact, this month’s Trend Force reports that “Samsung Electronics has completed the certification of HBM3, which is used in AMD GPUs.”also presents news. When the market share data was released in August last year, it was also revealed that “we are accepting orders for HBM from cloud service providers (CSPs) other than NVIDIA.” This can be interpreted as saying that AI semiconductor companies around the world other than NVIDIA are choosing Samsung’s advanced and universal HBM. It can be concluded that the resulting sales and technological competitiveness will nourish Samsung Electronics’ HBM business.
◇ HBM ‘capa’ increases
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I will also bring you Trend Force data. This is data about production capacity. By the end of this year, Samsung Electronics has decided to produce HBM at the level of 130,000 wafers per month. This is slightly ahead of SK Hynix’s production volume.
In January this year, Samsung Electronics announced that it would increase its HBM production capacity by more than 2.5 times compared to the previous one. Expansion is expected to take place mainly at the Cheonan plant, where advanced packaging lines are located. Equipment bought from Shinkawa, a Japanese HBM bonding equipment company, is said to have been rapidly installed since late last year.
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HBM market size and selling price is decreasing bit by bit. Data source = Yole Group
As DRAM companies, including Samsung, expand their facilities and increase HBM shipments, sales also increase each year. What they end up facing ‘Bite-by-bit selling price reduction’than see. It is a natural phenomenon that occurs as technology matures and supply increases significantly. Market research firm Yole Group also predicted, “Currently, the price premium of HBM is more than 6 times that of general-purpose DRAM, but it will decrease to 3 times by 2028.”
The big secret to Samsung Electronics’ ability to maintain first place in the DRAM business is productivity. In the industry, we hear comments like, “We have come a long way to maximize profit by spending even 10 earned less on the same product.” Within a few years, we will have to wait and see if HBM will be able to maintain leadership by maintaining its price premium over its competitors based on its abundant capital, production capacity, and knowledge of production technology.
HBM Samsung Electronics. After the demobilization of the HBM development staff in 2019 and the emergence of ChatGPT in 2022, many people were disappointed and criticized by the sudden decline in competitiveness and the data and results that suggest this.
However, looking at the positive signals about Samsung that have been gradually permeating the market recently, it seems that Samsung Electronics is now at least approaching HBM in earnest. We will have to watch the HBM industry landscape carefully at the end of the year. That’s it for today. Have a nice weekend.
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