The recent release of leading indicators indicates that the economic level of China is improving and continuously rising. One significant indicator is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which reached 50.2% in September, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month. This rebound marks the fourth consecutive month of growth and the first time it has returned to the expanding range since April. Additionally, the PMI of 11 out of 21 surveyed industries was above the critical point, indicating expanded prosperity in the manufacturing industry.
The example of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry further highlights this economic improvement. From July to August, the industry experienced rapid growth, with significant increases in output for polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery, and module production. Many photovoltaic companies in China are becoming leaders in the global industry, breaking efficiency records and setting new world records.
Other indicators, such as the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index, also show positive growth. The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 51.7%, and the comprehensive PMI output index reached 52.0%, both showing increases of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Furthermore, the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) for the third quarter reached 89.2, a 0.2-point increase from the previous quarter. This index reflects improved business confidence, increased investment, and a gradual recovery in the market. More small and medium-sized enterprises are transitioning and upgrading to digital and intelligent operations.
The China Express Development Index in September saw a 15% year-on-year increase, reflecting the growth of logistics activity in the country. The logistics industry’s prosperity index also rebounded significantly in September, driven by effective policies, recovering demand, and improving market expectations. The warehousing industry also maintained stability and positivity, with the warehousing index reaching its highest level since May.
Positive signs can also be seen in other sectors, such as retail and commodity bulk. The China Retail Industry Prosperity Index reached 51.3% in October, a slight increase from the previous month, while the China Commodity Bulk Index reached its highest point since August 2020.
Overall, these indicators demonstrate the continued improvement and recovery of China’s economy, signaling positive prospects for future growth.
Guangming.com (Reporter Zhao Yanyan and Jin Yuxi)The leading indicators are the “barometer” and “windcock” of the macroeconomics. A few days ago, a series of leading indicators were released, which reflect that the economic level of my country continues to improve and is constantly rising.
Return to the expansion zone! Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in September was 50.2%
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an important leading indicator that reflects the functioning of the macro economy. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the manufacturing PMI in September was 50.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, rebounding for four consecutive months, and returning to the expanding range for the first time since the month of April. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI of 11 industries was above the critical point, an increase of 2 from the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has expanded.
“The manufacturing PMI continued to rebound in September and was above the boom line, indicating that the economic rebound has strengthened further and the rebound trend is more pronounced.” Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes.
Take the photovoltaic manufacturing industry as an example. From July to August this year, my country’s photovoltaic manufacturing industry continued to operate at a high level, and the industrial scale and output of the main products continued to grow rapidly. The national polysilicon, silicon wafer , battery , and module output increased by almost or more than 80% year after year. Many photovoltaic companies have gradually become leaders in the global photovoltaic industry. JinkoSolar’s independently developed N-type modules have broken conversion efficiency records 22 times; Trina Solar’s “210 mm × 21 mm high-efficiency i-TOPCon cell” has the highest cell efficiency of 25.5%, setting a new world record for large-area industrial monocrystalline silicon i-TOPCon cell efficiency.
In addition, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 51.7% and 52.0% respectively, an increase of 0.7 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that as policy effects continued to accumulate and positive factors in economic activity continued to increase, the three major indexes were all in the expansion range in September, which indicates that China’s level of economic prosperity has rebounded.
Back on the rise again! The index of development of small and medium enterprises in the third quarter was 89.2
On October 10, the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association released data. The Small and Medium Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) in the third quarter was 89.2, an increase of 0.2 points from the previous quarter, Multiple sub-indexes and sub-industry indices increase significantly.
Xie Ji, secretary general of the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association, said that with the introduction of a series of policy combinations and the continued effects, the index returned to the rising range in the third quarter. 89.2 is higher than the same period in 2022 and close to the highest point in two years.
Among the sub-indices, the macroeconomic sentiment index, which reflects business confidence, rose by 0.5 points, the biggest increase. The investment index and the market index rebounded significantly. Among the eight industries surveyed, the index increased investment from 5 industries, indicating that companies’ willingness to invest has increased, and in the market Expect a gradual recovery. Among the sub-industry indices, the industrial index rose by 0.4 points, the largest increase.
At the same time, the operating situation of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved, and the proportion of enterprises that are fully operational has increased. A survey of the operating rates of sample enterprises by the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association showed that 41.10% of enterprises were fully operational at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 4.25 percentage points from the end of the second quarter. With the implementation of policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions and financing cost reductions, the production and operations of small and medium enterprises are improving, the demand for recruitment has increased, and more and more small and medium enterprises are accelerating their transformation. and upgrading to digitization and intelligence.
Favorable policies also continue to be released. In Xiamen, Fujian, applications for small and medium enterprise management consulting project subsidies have begun, and eligible companies can receive up to 300,000 yuan; in Changzhou, Jiangsu, in order to promote intelligent transformation and digital transformation of manufacturing companies, companies that create “lighthouse factories” Award up to 3 million yuan.
Chongqing Yuhai Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is committed to using digital technology to improve its core competitiveness. The relevant person in charge of the company said that the company mainly produces plastic structural parts for laptops, In recent years, the company has accelerated its digital transformation, introduced more than 400 robots and automation equipment, and applied a number of information management systems, with the yield rate increasing to more than 99% Production efficiency has greatly improved.
Logistics activity increased! The China Express Development Index in September was 406.1
“Mobile China” highlights the vitality and resilience of our country’s economy. On October 11, the State Post Bureau announced that China’s express delivery development index in September 2023 was 406.1, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Among them, the development scale index, service quality index and development capacity index were 434.3, 673.4 and 223.5 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, 19.9% and 7.9% respectively that. The index of development trends is 67.1. The size of the express delivery market is gradually expanding, the quality and efficiency of the service are being effectively improved, the basic capabilities are being gradually improved, and the development trend continues to improve.
In the first three quarters, express delivery business volume and business revenue are expected to increase by approximately 16.4% and 11% respectively year on year, which is much higher than the levels of the same period last year. The development base of the industry is stable and the market size has achieved “three jumps in a row”. With the advent of “Double 11” and “Double 12”, the industry will gradually enter the peak business season in the fourth quarter and will still maintain rapid growth.
Previously, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released a series of latest data, which also showed the high activity of my country’s logistics. Data shows that China’s logistics industry prosperity index (LPI) was 53.5% in September. Hui, the chief economist of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that in September, affected by factors such as effective policies, a gradual recovery in demand, and improving market expectations, the prosperity index of the logistics industry rebounded significantly from the previous month.
China’s warehouse index in September was 53.5%, a relatively clear increase, reaching the highest point since May this year. Wang Yong, vice president of China Storage Development Co, Ltd, said that the warehousing index rebounded 1.5 percentage points in September and remained in the expansion range for eight consecutive months, indicating that the warehousing industry maintained a stable trend and positive.
The “2023 China Warehouse and Logistics Tenant Survey” recently released by CBRE, a world-renowned commercial real estate services and investment company, revealed that in the face of an improving economy, 59% of tenants surveyed said they would increase floor space logistics facilities in the next three years The general trend is moderate expansion.
As of October 10, the China E-commerce Logistics Index for September 2023 jointly released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and JD.com was 112.3 points, an increase of 1.2 points from the previous month. The demand for e-commerce logistics has improved significantly, the delivery capacity and efficiency of e-commerce logistics companies have gradually improved, and many indicators are at historically high levels.
In general, as demand in the upstream and downstream supply chain stabilizes and the market gradually increases, the economy and logistics operations will have a basis for stabilization and recovery in the next phase .
In addition, there is a number of data that release positive signs for the economic development of my country. In October, China’s Retail Industry Prosperity Index (CRPI) was 51.3%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new high in almost a year; in September, China’s Commodity Bulk Index (CBMI) was 103.6%, with the index rising for the second consecutive time into 2020. The highest point since August… my country’s economic performance continues to rise, growth momentum continues to be unleashed, and development confidence has increased significantly.
During the “Golden Week” of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, national rail transportation carried 195 million passengers, 826 million domestic tourists traveled, and domestic tourism revenue reached 753.43 billion yuan, which further highlighted the strong consumption potential of a country that showed the stronger resilience of China’s economy, and vitality.
The increase in data is inseparable from the support of policies The “combination” of new policies such as promoting consumption, cutting taxes and fees, and supporting the development of private enterprises has targeted weak links in economic operations and areas that urgently need to be developed. It plays a good role in stabilizing economic growth. “In the next step, we need to focus on promoting the implementation of the policies and measures introduced to further strengthen the ongoing economic recovery.” Qing, a senior researcher on the Yangtze River Economic Zone at Renmin University in China, stressed.
[Golygydd â gofal: Wu Jiang]
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