Stock Dimension – GULF by Dao Securities (Thailand) said it maintains a “Buy” recommendation and a target price of 60.00 baht based on SOTP, with an estimated Q4/23E normal profit of 4.5 billion baht (+26% YoY, +8 % QoQ ) close to original estimate Profit grew from 1) COD of GPD power plant (IPP) unit 2 at 663MW in Q4/23,
2) Increased profit sharing from high season affiliates BKR2 and Jackson Power Plant, 3) Natural gas prices fell to around 330 baht/MMBTU (-35% YoY, -9% QoQ).
The research department still estimates normal profit in 2023E at 16 billion baht (+32% YoY) and 2024E at 19 billion baht (+19% YoY), supported by the main project of the GPD power plant (IPP) unit 3 .-4 , total production capacity 1,325MW and Hin Kong Project (IPP) unit 1, production capacity 770MW, which will gradually COD from Q1/24E onwards.
The stock price has moved close to the market over the last 1 month after outperforming the market by around 4% in the last 3 months, which is estimated from a price when gradually signing PPAs for more than 1.3 GW of renewable energy power projects. that stocks have a chance to return Continuing to outperform a short-term catalyst is signing a PPA for around 400MW of wind power plants and applying for more than 3.6GW of renewable power plants, Phase 2, which is expected to see clarity in 2024E .
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