side “Thai Chamber of Commerce University Center for Economic and Business Prospects” It will be seen next year, the Thai economy will still be at risk due to the uncertainty of war. China’s no covid policy Therefore, the estimated GDP of 2013 has been assessed in 2 cases, the worst of which is the global economic recession, causing world trade to decrease from the base case of 1%, with GDP growing only 3.1%.
In the best case, foreign tourists increase from 2 million to another 24 million assuming GPP will grow by 4.1% or on average, Thailand’s economy in 2023 grew by 3.6% from 2022, growing by 3.3% driven by for the economy to expand as well as the tourism sector
bank “Economic and Business Research Center of Siam Commercial Bank or EEC” It was considered that the Thai economy would still face risks in several important areas: 1. The global economy slowed down, putting pressure on exports and investment.
2. China’s uncertain Zero-Covid policy affects Chinese tourists and exports. 3. High inflation, high interest rates, and high debt pressure to recover households and some vulnerable business groups 4. Political instability affects investment confidence.
The global economy has clearly slowed down this year. and will slow significantly in 2023 under increasing uncertainty. both from slow inflation a protracted energy crisis and tight monetary policy around the world. Some large countries have gone into recession since the end of this year, such as the UK. and the European Union
As the US is likely to enter recession in the second half of 2023, EIC cuts its 2022 global economic forecast from 3.0% to 2.9% and next year from 2.7% to 1.8% Thailand’s economic growth forecast in 2023 broken down. to 3.4% from 3.7% previously.
side “Kasikorn Research Center” revise the 2023 GDP estimate to 3.2% from the original expectation of 3.2-4.2% due to the US economy and the euro area not tending to grow as a result of the interest rate increase in the policy to control inflation
There is also the impact of the energy crisis in Europe. Although there is a tendency for China to open the country in the second quarter of 2023, but still have to monitor the situation in China after this. the number of patients, deaths, and the adequacy of the public health system
Because there is still a possibility that China will face a new wave of epidemics. This may have a lasting impact on Chinese economic activities. Therefore, it has maintained the number of tourists at 22 million from 2022, which adjusted the GDP to 3.2% from the original 2.9%.
while “Research krungsri” Thailand’s economy in 2023 is expected to grow at 3.6% from 3.2% in 2022, the main driver being the tourism sector which tends to recover. In contrast to the global economic slowdown increased household spending resumed as domestic economic activities as usual
Employment improved, particularly in tourism and related fields. On the investment side of the business sector, there are some positive signs of recovery in the services sector. Investment in infrastructure and expansion of investment promotion applications in the Eastern Special Development Zone (EEC)
However, investments in certain sectors and general exports face risks from external factors. the global economic slowdown Tighter financial conditions low growth in the Chinese economy
Long Russian-Ukrainian War and Geopolitical Tensions Including against the trend of globalization The de-globalization of these factors can limit the growth of economic activity in Thailand.
part “National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB)” consider that the factors supporting the Thai economy the recovery of the tourism sector investment in the private and public sectors domestic consumption and farm income are rising, boosting next year’s GDP growth of 3.5% from the 3-4% range
across “CIMB Thai Bank Research Office“I think the economy in 2012 was burning fake, but I’m worried it will really burn next year. Due to many factors, the risk of long Russian aggression in Ukraine The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
European debt crisis Especially in countries with high government debt, such as Italy, if government bond yields increase to the point that investors worry about debt default problems as in the past including market crises that n emerge As a result of this year, many countries face the risk of debt default.
While income from exports and tourism has decreased. And the mutated COVID spreads quickly, avoiding the immune system even if the symptoms are mild But it will lead to a large number of patients and deaths. This can again affect the public health system as a whole.
Regarding the political factors that are expected to hold elections next year attracting foreign investment to Thailand after the government is completed The bank maintains GDP in 2022 at 3.2% and in 2023 at 3.4%.
side “Bank of Thailand (BOT)” Looking forward to the Thai economy next year, growth of 3.7%, although the global economy is slowing down, export growth will be affected to 1%, but it will be recovered by domestic consumption. and tourism
It is expected that the number of tourists this year will be 10 million people, in 2023, plus or minus 20 million people from 2022 will grow at a level of 3%, inflation is expected to reach a frame of 1-3% in the second half of the year next.
by trying to maintain stability A gradual increase in interest rates, with inflation peaking at 7.9%, has gradually declined.
side “The World Bank or the World Bank” Continuously adjusted GDP in 2022 from 2.9% to 3.1% and increased to 3.4% from the tourism sector and domestic consumption.
But unlike the year 2023, the World Bank has reduced Thailand’s GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 4.1% and down to 3.6%, which is considered an acceleration compared to the latest Thai economic projections in 2022 and 2023. Only and a little more
This is because Thailand has experienced a slowdown in export growth similar to other ASEAN countries due to the global economic slowdown. As a result, merchandise exports contracted by 2.1% in 2023 from 8.1% in 2022.
end “Asian Development Bank (ADB)” It dropped its forecast for Asia’s development in 2022 to 4.2% from the previous forecast of 4.3%, and this is the fifth time ADB has cut its economic forecast for the sector. and lowered its economic growth forecast for 2023 to 4.6% from the previous forecast of 4.9%.
because the Chinese economy tends to slow down more than expected It is expected to grow only 3% from 3.3% in 2022 and 4.3% from 4.5% previously.
In addition, Thailand’s 2022 GDP has been revised up to 3.2% from the previous figure of 2.9%, and Thailand’s inflation forecast is maintained at 6.3% this year and 2.7% next year.. The Thai economy fell in 2023 to 4.0% from 4.2%.
In general, most economic authorities are optimistic that next year’s GDP will be lower than expected. from the global economic slowdown and halting exports
Regarding the hope of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel by using tourism instead of exporting It may not be a force to drive the economy fully because China has not fully opened the country
So public and private have to spend more, especially the government sector, measures to stimulate the economy should be pressed together Make money circulate in the system and maintain employment.
Because otherwise, the business may have to die a lot. and an increase in unemployment Although people have to consume more domestic products. Supporting Thailand’s economy to survive the crisis…
