The baht hit its weakest level in almost a month and the SET Index fell following selling pressure from foreign investors and domestic institutions. Amidst concerns about listed company (Ltd) debt default issues, keep an eye out for important factors next week. Foreign capital signals, BOT Policy Briefing event, and gradual announcement of 4Q23 operating results of listed companies, especially the banking group.
January 13, 2024 Kasikorn Research Center Summary of the movement of the baht value: The baht reached its weakest level in almost a month at 35.23 baht per dollar. during the week The baht continues to depreciate in line with most Asian currencies. The baht faced selling pressure at the start of the week. Against the dollar which has some continued support from the better than expected US non-agricultural employment numbers
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However, the baht bounced back briefly while the dollar lost support after US bond yields contracted ahead of the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers.
However, the baht weakened again during the rest of the week. This is consistent with foreign net selling positions on Thai stocks and bonds. In addition, the market is still waiting to follow signals regarding the direction of interest rates in the country. Meanwhile, pressure on the dollar slowed some After the consumer price index data and the number of weekly jobless claims in the United States. This came out better than the market forecast, reflecting the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed at its meeting in March. There is still great uncertainty.
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On Friday, January 12, 2024, the baht closed at 35.06 baht per dollar, compared to 34.72 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (January 5, 2024), for the status of foreign investors’ investment portfolio between 8-12 January 2024, foreign investors net sold Thai stocks of 4,238 million baht, but the status was Net Outflows from the bond market Thai of 4,380 million baht (net sale of bonds of 3,460 million baht and expired debt instruments of 920 million baht)
For the next week (15-19 January 2024), Bank Kasikorn sees the movement of the baht at the level of 34.70-35.40 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that need to be followed, including signs of foreign capital and BOT Policy Briefing events.
Although important US economic figures include the manufacturing sector surveys from the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed. Housing Market Index and Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary) January 2024, retail sales, industrial production Number of home construction starts and second-hand home sales in December. 2023 and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits
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In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the December inflation rate. 2023 Eurozone and England Including Chinese economic data such as 4Q23 GDP and other economic indicators in December 2023 as well.
Thai stock market graph
Regarding the movement of the Thai stock market The Thai stock index fell for most of the week. Thai stocks have fallen steadily since the start of the week following selling pressure from foreign investors and domestic institutions. By reporting news of an application for deferring the repayment of corporate bond debt. Some places are putting pressure on the overall investment climate. As a result, there is strong selling pressure on stocks in many industries.
In addition, the news that major investment banks in the United States The downgrade of Thai bank stocks is still a negative factor that puts additional pressure on bank stocks, however, the Thai stock index partially recovered at the end of the a week. There was strong buying of bank stocks back before the 4Q23 budget announcement to support this.
On Friday, January 12, 2024, the SET Index closed at 1,413.53 points, down 1.01% from the level at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the average daily trading value was 41,215.73 million baht, down 11.99% from the previous week The index increased by 0.26% to close at 420.57 points.
For the next week (15-19 January), Kasikorn Securities Co, Ltd sees that the Thai stock index has support levels at 1,400 and 1,390 points, while resistance levels are at 1,435 and 1,455 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center evaluates important factors Things that need to be followed include the direction of foreign capital. and gradual publication of operating results for the 4th quarter of 2023 of Thai companies, especially the banking group.
Important US economic data includes retail sales, industrial production. Data on home building starts and used home sales in December. Including the number of people claiming weekly unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, other overseas economic data includes December’s Consumer Price Index. from Japan, the Eurozone and England Including 4Q23 GDP numbers and December economic data. from China, such as industrial output, retail sales, and investment in fixed assets.
Read the original news at: The baht weakens the most in almost a month Keep an eye on 3 important factors next week.
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