Source: Futures Daily
Recently,RebarThe main futures contract showed an up and down trend. After more than two months of continuous accumulation, the total rebar inventory started to go out of storage last week, the supply and demand situation improved, and the price rose to a high level. However, as the market has not yet fully reached the peak usage season, the terminal’s acceptance of high prices is not high, and rebar started to fall slightly. Therefore, in the later period, we need to focus on the performance of the traditional “Golden Three Silver Four” peak usage seasons.
Last week, rebar started to enter the storage stage, which is the first time to go into storage after the Spring Festival this year. According to the statistics, as of 23 February, the total rebar inventory was 12.53 million tonnes, which was a seasonal low after the Spring Festival in the past seven years, only higher than the level in the same period in 2017. According to the author’s analysis, during the destocking period after the Spring Festival in 2012-2015, the price of rebar showed a downward trend. In the destocking period after the Spring Festival in 2016-2021, the price of rebar will rise as a whole. In the destocking period after the Spring Festival in 2022, the price of rebar will decrease as a whole. In general, during the destocking period after the Spring Festival, the price of rebar has no obvious fluctuation pattern, the price fluctuation mainly depends on the expectations of consumption and downstream consumption, while the elasticity of supply is determine the price variance.
From the perspective of the market outlook, although the infrastructure is expected to continue to give its strength, it will still take time for the real estate side to drive the use of rebar. At the beginning of this year, the sale of real estate rose sharply. Considering that it will take a certain period of time from acquiring land to starting new construction, the area of land purchase fell sharply in the second half of last year. estate start data during the first half of this year will still be poor, but starts and construction in the second half of the year are expected to improve. In terms of high frequency use, as of 21 February, the resumption rate of 12,220 engineering projects nationwide was 86.1%, an increase of 9.6 percentage points week-on-week, and a year-on-year increase of 5.7 percentage points. points in the lunar calendar; the labor service delivery rate was 83.9%, an increase of 15.7 percentage points from week to week, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from year to lunar calendar year. As of 23 February, the weekly apparent consumption of rebar was 2.937 million tonnes, a 14.9% increase over the same period in the lunar calendar last year and a 32% increase from the previous month. From a month-on-month perspective, as the rate of resumption of construction sites increases further, the consumption of building materials will continue to increase month-on-month.
In addition, this year the country will continue to consolidate the results of production reduction, but scrap steel and low profits from steel mills will affect the release of rebar production. In particular, in 2022, under the combined influence of poor end-use and low profits of steel mills, the national crude steel output will decrease by 2.1% year on year. In 2023, although the relevant departments have not yet clarified the crude steel reduction policy, they will continue to consolidate the results of steel production capacity reduction and production reduction. From this point of view, policies will continue to disturb the supply side of the rebar in the later period. As of February 23, rebar weekly output was 2.8217 million tons, down from the same period last year, and continued to rise week-on-week. After the Spring Festival, steel mills as a whole continue to resume production, and rebar production will further increase. However, due to the general scarcity of scrap steel resources and low margins of steel mills, production recovery may be limited.
Judging from the disc, on February 27, the spot profit of the rebar blast furnace is 124 yuan / ton, the disc profit is 10 yuan / ton, and the steel profit of the electric furnace is 35 yuan / ton. The theoretical price of rebar in Shanghai is 4260 yuan/ton, which is 447 yuan/ton higher than the average price of 3813 yuan/ton in 2007-2023. The blast furnace spot profit is moderate, the electric furnace and plate profit is low, the rebar future is slightly discounted, and the absolute price is at a historically high level. From the perspective of comprehensive steel mill profit, basis and absolute prices, the overall valuation of the 2305 rebar futures contract is slightly low, the overall drive is still up, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation.(Author unit: Zhongzhou Futures)
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