The property market will turn around after the withdrawal of spicy food, it’s not like an Indian summer.
As soon as the spicy food withdrawal was announced, the market immediately reacted positively. The desire to invest that had been suppressed for more than ten years was suddenly released. I originally expected that the volume of transactions in the property market in March would be around 30% higher than in February. Now it appears that the estimate is too conservative, and doubling it should not be a problem. Among them, the trading volume in the primary market can be increased three times (the base is too low), and the trading volume in the secondary market can also be increased more than 50%.
In terms of property prices, as there are still many listings in the primary market, large-scale developers should first strive to maintain sales volume and not be too aggressive in pricing. However, a 3% to 5% rebound from the low should not be a problem. It will then depend on the trend of interest rates and the evolution of the real economy.
Owners of small properties in the second-hand market reacted more quickly than developers this time. After withdrawing, many of them immediately counter-priced their properties. However, since there is still some level trading that has not been spent, the transaction price will not suddenly rise too quickly. The Central Plains City Leading Index released on March 1 was still down 0.31% because it still reflected market conditions two weeks before the spicy food withdrawal. It is estimated that the index released on March 8 will not look too good The Central Plains City Lead Index will not until after March 15 gradually reflect the price trend of the used market after a spicy withdrawal. food.
I estimate that this rebound in the second-hand market will last at least three months, with an increase of 5% to 8%, and the market sentiment will also turn from pessimism to optimism. I believe that the market outlook has a good chance of getting out of the darkness and no longer being affected by negative emotions.
Some friends in the real estate industry call this phenomenon “Indian Summer”, not Xiaoyangchun. In fact, in the Chinese vocabulary, there is only Indian Summer, and there is no such thing as “Indian Summer”. Indian Summer is a solar term, referring to the time between the onset of winter and the light snow. Sometimes the weather will warm up, and some fruit trees will even bloom at this time, making people mistakenly think that spring has arrived.
From this point of view, Indian Summer is just a misunderstanding. Indeed, spring has not arrived yet, but it is only warm and cold. If winter has not passed, spring will not come so soon. As for what “Yangchun” is, I believe it is just a secondary creation of some self-righteous people. They felt that the situation was not good, but great, so they called Indian Summer the “Great Indian Spring”.
Judging from the intensity of the market reaction this time, the foundation of Hong Kong’s residential market is very solid; there are the needs of residential owners and the needs of investors for asset allocation. After the dirty tricks are withdrawn, the positive interaction between self-management of occupation and investment will begin It took effect immediately and changed the situation the market immediately.
I believe that the market has changed its trend this time and it is no longer a problem to stop falling and stabilize. When combined with interest rate cuts, property prices can not only hold on to the current support level, but can also rise alongside the momentum of economic recovery. It appears that the government should resume land sales soon.
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