Author: Kowit Wongsurawat
Russo-Ukrainian War: Lessons from the First World War
The Russo-Ukrainian war erupted in full force. When the Russian army launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and Russia continued to support the secession of the Donbass region until the civil war in Ukraine from 2014 until today.
At first, almost all countries believed that Russia would be able to capture Kiev. Capital Ukraine easily and quickly Even the United States intelligence agency is still evaluated as such But it seemed that Ukraine fought a deadly resistance with a smart strategy and was able to counterattack the Russian army and retreat so effective that many Western analysts at times saw it as Ukraine may succeed in defeating the Russian giant.
But now, in May 2024, the Russian-Ukrainian war has reached the point where both sides have established a battle line along Ukraine’s eastern border since 2022. On the Russian side, which now occupies about a fifth of black in Ukraine. unable to occupy more territory than this At the same time, Ukraine could not invade and recover more territory. In addition, they had to retreat from some of the recaptured areas due to a lack of artillery ammunition. Meanwhile, the weapons arsenals of both sides were depleted. Especially Ukraine The New York Times reported that the Ukrainian army uses 90 percent less artillery shells in combat than in the same period last year. Supplies and weapons were clearly depleted.
in the midst of the Hamas-Israeli war in Gaza This caused the United States, Ukraine’s largest sponsor of arms and money, to allocate support and budget to help that side of the war. It is reported that in the last two months Russia has shifted its focus to attack the critical infrastructure of Ukraine. no longer emphasizing the expansion of occupied areas Ukraine has also focused on targeting targets in Russian territory, with both sides exhausted after a long war. Making the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian War look like digging trenches in the First World War.
Therefore, if the Russian-Ukrainian war can end, we must look at the lessons from the First World War that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end. It will come from two reasons, from the Russian side or the Ukrainian side. Which side will happen first?
1) There was a great mutiny among the soldiers, meaning that they disobeyed orders to continue fighting. or flee from the army in large numbers As the soldiers are discouraged and will continue to fight or
2) One side has symptoms of state failure (failed state), which means that the government is no longer able to govern the country, with riots everywhere. A coup d’état can happen because the people are tired of the war.
An example of this is World War I. In 1917, most Russian soldiers disobeyed the orders of their officers and arbitrarily fled back to Russia. and he made a revolution to overthrow the government at the same time Meanwhile, the French and Italian soldiers refused to attack the German trenches. Until it was necessary to dismiss the general and appoint General Pétain as general in his place. General Pétain did not order the French troops to attack the German trenches again. Just place the soldiers to face them in the trenches.
In the end, the German army had to negotiate its own surrender. Because all of Germany’s allies surrendered to the Allies. and the German army had already made estimates of weapons and food supplies. Seeing that he could no longer fight, he decided to give up. Meanwhile, the Kaiser abdicated and fled to the Netherlands. and a change of government was announced to make Germany a republic. Germany’s surrender came despite Germany’s surrender. that none of the Allied forces could cross the German border at all. The Western Front of the First World War was still almost 1,400 kilometers from Berlin, but German soldiers were encouraged not to continue fighting.
Warning signs of a Russian military coup emerged on Saturday, June 24. Last year, Russian frontline troops moved from Ukraine to capture the Russian city of Rostov. and moved north to seize all centers of military operations in Voronezh. which is only 500 kilometers from Moscow. Before withdrawing his army and returning to the city of Rostov, he agreed to cancel this rebellion. This real event is more or less enough to tell the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war and how it will end.
yes! Ukraine or Russia Who will go first now?
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