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In September 2020, the US Army M1 Abrams main battle tank is loaded onto a train and passes through Mokaba railway station in Lithuania. AFP Yonhap News
About 100 tanks are expected to be sent to the Ukrainian front as the US and Germany have officially provided their main tanks after a dispute. However, it is stated that the amount is insufficient to reverse the charter. Ukraine is asking for additional long-range missiles and fighter jets as well as tanks, so a similar debate is likely to arise again.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the 25th (local time) that the United States and Germany would provide support for 31 M1 Abrams and 14 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, respectively.
Ukraine needs more Western tanks to have a clear advantage in land warfare. According to the New York Times (NYT), the West has agreed to provide at least 105 tanks by today, which is a third of the 300 that Ukraine has requested. David Silvay, a military expert and professor at Cornell University, told the New York Times, “If the West provides 500 to 1,000 units, the situation can change.”
The number that can be used at the moment is also limited. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it would take three to four months to deliver Germany’s Leopard 2. Abrams is also expected to take several months to deploy as the US plans to acquire new tanks to replace stock. This could make it difficult to use before the Russian attack on the eastern region of Bahmut. Ukraine expects Russia to send an additional 50,000 troops for a general offensive in the spring or summer.
Currently, only 14 Challenger 2s, which are Britain’s main battle tank, 14 Leopard 2s owned by Poland, and 4 and 8 Leopard 2s owned by Portugal and Norway respectively are expected be used in the near future.
As Ukraine, which has managed to secure its main tank through diplomatic pressure, demands more powerful weapons from the West, there is a possibility that a debate similar to tank support will happen again over support for fighter jets such as ATACMS (Atakims) and F16 surface -missiles to the surface.
President Zelensky mentioned support for long-range missiles and aircraft, saying that “progress must also be made on other aspects of defense cooperation.” He also said that he had spoken to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in this regard. Ukraine Defense Ministry adviser Yuri Sak said, “The Hill is expected to be supported with the latest Western aircraft, such as the F16.”
Frank St. said. John, chief operating officer (COE) of Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F16, told the Financial Times on the same day, “There is a lot of support for the F16 in Ukraine through third-party transfers from countries that have made US F16s to re-export to Ukraine Negotiations are coming and going,” he said, adding that Lockheed Martin plans to ramp up production of the F16 in preparation for a third-party transfer to support Ukraine.
The Pentagon has maintained its position that there is support for long-range missiles and fighter jets with a range of more than 300 km that can hit the Russian mainland unnecessarily. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also reiterated his stance that “there is no support for fighters.” On the other hand, Dutch Foreign Minister Bofker Hoekstra said on the 19th that he would review the F16 request with an ‘open mind’ and that there was no taboo on support.
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