U.S.-Iran War: Top Risks to Energy Security and Global Economy

Central bankers and policymakers warned that the ongoing U.S.-Iran war is already affecting global inflation and growth, with energy market volatility and supply chain disruptions posing significant risks to the world economy.

Speaking to CNBC during the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington, DC, more than 30 officials said the conflict, now in its eighth week, has created uncertainty that is weighing on the global outlook. They noted that the war is already influencing inflation trends and economic growth projections worldwide.

Policymakers highlighted that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, have contributed to oil price surges above $120 per barrel during the war’s initial phase. This volatility has triggered concerns about broader financial market instability and the economic fallout from prolonged Gulf instability.

Officials said the war has evolved beyond its original military objectives into a struggle over global energy infrastructure, with both sides using economic coercion as a strategic tool. The targeting of energy facilities and maritime routes has turned the Persian Gulf into a central theatre of conflict, raising alarms about the resilience of international energy systems.

Among the top concerns cited were the risks of stagflation — combining stagnant growth with persistent inflation — and threats to energy security as nations reassess their dependence on Gulf hydrocarbons. Policymakers stressed that the war’s trajectory remains unclear, with mixed signals from Washington and Tehran complicating efforts to anticipate its economic consequences.