The Conservative Party faces a complex challenge in regaining lost ground, with analysis suggesting that focusing solely on countering the threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK risks overlooking a broader erosion of support. A report released by the new centre-right movement, Prosper UK, indicates that in the majority of seats lost in the 2024 election, the primary hurdle isn’t voters switching to Reform, but rather a combination of voters drifting left, becoming disengaged, or remaining undecided.
The Prosper UK analysis, based on a poll of 13,000 voters conducted by More in Common, reveals that in 213 of the 251 seats the Conservatives lost in 2024, the number of former Tory voters now supporting left-leaning parties or disengaging from politics exceeds those who have moved to Reform. Specifically, for every previous Conservative voter now backing Reform, We find 1.3 ex-Tory voters supporting Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Green party, or not voting at all.
Sir Andy Street, co-chair of Prosper UK and former West Midlands mayor, emphasized the importance of appealing to the political center. “This analysis is a reminder that elections in the UK are still won in the political middle ground,” he stated. “In most of the seats the Conservatives need to win back, the priority is not chasing Reform, but winning back people who have drifted left, switched off or are still undecided.”
This finding comes as Reform UK prepares to unveil a series of radical policy proposals focused on immigration, policing, and national security. Zia Yusuf, the party’s newly appointed home affairs spokesperson, is expected to advocate for withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights and the implementation of a “mass deportation” act targeting illegal immigration. Yusuf’s language, describing an “invasion” of illegal migrants, has already drawn criticism from campaign groups.
The Conservative Party appears to be responding to the need for broader appeal with initiatives like the “new deal for young people” announced on Sunday. This package includes the elimination of real interest on Plan 2 Student Loans, potentially saving graduates tens of thousands of pounds, and a commitment to create 100,000 additional apprenticeships for 18- to 21-year-olds.
Recent defections from the Conservative Party to Reform UK, such as that of former shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, highlight the internal tensions within the right-of-center political landscape. These moves underscore the challenge facing the Conservatives in maintaining party unity while attempting to broaden their base.
Reform UK’s proposals, as outlined by Yusuf, are expected to include plans for a new agency capable of detaining up to 24,000 migrants and deporting 288,000 annually. He is also expected to call for an expansion of “stop and search” powers for police and an increase in prison capacity, alongside a significant overhaul of the Prevent programme aimed at countering extremism, including mandatory home searches for those referred to the scheme.
Labour chair Anna Turley preemptively criticized Reform UK’s plans, arguing that the party’s proposals represent a divisive approach. She specifically condemned the potential deportation of individuals who have followed the rules and integrated into British society, labeling it “fundamentally un-British.”
The situation presents a delicate balancing act for the Conservatives. While the need to address concerns about immigration and security is evident, the Prosper UK analysis suggests that a singular focus on these issues, and attempting to win back voters from Reform, could prove counterproductive. A broader strategy aimed at regaining the support of those who have drifted left or become disengaged appears crucial for a successful electoral recovery. The party’s recent moves to address the concerns of young voters with student loan reforms and apprenticeship programs signal an attempt to broaden its appeal, but the long-term effectiveness of this approach remains to be seen.
The dynamic also highlights the evolving nature of the UK’s political landscape. The rise of Reform UK, coupled with the increasing number of independent candidates, suggests a growing dissatisfaction with the traditional two-party system. The Conservatives must navigate this shifting terrain carefully, balancing the need to address the concerns of their core supporters with the imperative of attracting a wider range of voters.
